With three weeks to go in the campaign, fundraising is heating up. That's even true for state legislatures, which will shape the political playing field for 10 years, through redistricting.

Today I will give examples of how small donors can make one donation do double the work.

Here are levels at which the PEC team has quantitatively analyzed per-voter power, a measure of get-out-the-vote or donation effectiveness:

- Presidency (getting to 270 EV)
- Senate (winning one more seat)
- State legislatures (redistricting for a decade)
https://election.princeton.edu/2020/07/30/new-pec-feature-redistricting-moneyball-2020-edition/

I will now give you a list of targets where your donations will work at two of these three levels.

Many of them will be found at this curated link. I will give more links along the way. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/pec2020?refcode=thermometer

1) Selected regions of Kansas.

The U.S. Senate race is on a knife edge. Also, the state legislature can impose a single-party gerrymander, but losing just one state House seat breaks the supermajority.

The highest concentration of swing districts is in Johnson County, near KC.

...and House District 98 near Wichita. By our calculations it has the highest per-voter power in all KS. A rematch between Crum (D) v Howard (R). The margin in 2018: 130 of 5,460 votes cast. Note: local races are far cheaper than a Congressional campaign. https://ballotpedia.org/Kansas_House_of_Representatives_District_98

(I pause to remind everyone of all the resources at http://election.princeton.edu , where all the details of this analysis can be found.) #RedistrictingMoneyball #Moneyball2020 #FairMaps

What's at stake in Kansas: two Congressional seats for a decade. From the standpoint of state Senate leader Susan Wagle: https://twitter.com/Davis_Hammet/status/1314566887230054402

Continuing the #RedistrictingMoneyball concept:

2) Florida's Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, & Hillsborough counties.

FL can settle the Presidential election on Election Night. High per-voter power of 53 (max=100). A likely 29 U.S. House seats will be redrawn. https://election.princeton.edu/data/moneyball/?key_state=FL

3) North Carolina state House.

In this case, a 2.5-fer. A deciding state for the Presidency on Election Night (voter power=65), as well as determining redistricting (note the governor has no say in the map). And there could be movement in the Senate race.

3') From the standpoint of bipartisan redistricting, a similar logic in the opposite direction for states where Democrats may gain a trifecta. Minnesota has high Presidential per-voter power (33.4) if the race goes to a near-tie. https://secure.winred.com/team/29968933-princeton-election-consortium-optim

Now, for some Presidential/Senate two-fers.

4) Alaska is the top choice. Around ~300,000 votes will be cast in Alaska. It's the only state where PEC per-voter power is >20 for both Presidency (29.7) and Senate (100, the top of the list). https://secure.actblue.com/donate/pec2020federal?refcode=thermometer

5) Another way to look at the President+Senate two-fer question: what will determine control of the Senate, i.e. tipping-point races?

In that case, Alaska still wins - but add Georgia (specifically, Ossoff v. Perdue) and South Carolina to the list.

That's all the two-fers I can think of.

For analysis at individual levels, see http://election.princeton.edu , which includes

President: AZ, NV, NC, PA, FL.
Senate: AK, MT, ME, IA, SC, KS.
Redistricting: KS, TX, NC, MN, CT, FL.

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