Going to do a brief thread on what #Juchefest is and why everyone in the open source intelligence / nonproliferation / missile / North Korea watchers are all babbling at each other right now. 1/

(short answer for babbling - we think the parade is actually going but they put us on tape delay) 2/

North Korea loves military parades. They *especially* love the every-5-years anniversary parades, and this is the 75th anniversary of the founding of the worker's party (Korean Communist Party). 3/

This is important for us because since the peace talks between Kim Jong-Un and Trump broke down, they've been threatening stuff. They did a test launch of a larger Pukuksong-3 submarine launched missile and various ground tests. 4/

Traditionally, these big parades were one of the more common places they unveiled new missiles and weapons to the world. And North Korea believes in the deterrent value of showing off the new weapons. So if they actually have new missiles they're likely in the parade. 5/

What we're looking for:
* Larger solid fuel missiles, possibly a solid fuel ICBM (can reach the US)
* Larger liquid fuel missiles, possibly a larger or more efficient ICBM
* North Korean-made missile transport trucks (TELs/MELs)
* More portable solid fuel medium range missiles
6/

And undoubtedly some additional surprises.

We've seen signs for years that they're working on larger solid missiles and possibly solid ICBMs. They are important because they can be prepared for firing faster - they don't have to be loaded with fuel and oxidizer first. 7/

A lot of the defense against large scale North Korean missile attacks is the hope or expectation that liquid fuel missiles can be spotted and destroyed during preparations for launch. The faster those preparations the less time to destroy them and less likely we can. 8/

We have seen empty missile tubes which probably would hold solid ICBM sized missiles in previous parades, both on launcher vehicles and towed trailer launchers. Until now we didn't think they'd have missiles in them. They may now. 9/

There are going to be a ton of analysts in the various watcher communities I expect to be tweeting about it when the parade broadcast starts its tape-delayed playing. (apologies in advance if I miss people - please feel free to tag yourself in thread) 10/

@ArmsControlWonk whose research group I am affiliated with, including @DaveSchmerler @DuitsyWasHere @wslafoy and others. @mhanham and the @Datayo_org team including @stoa1984 , and @OpenNuclear . @EllemanIISS at IISS, @RocketSchiller ... /11

Independents including @ISNJH , @NuclearAnthro , @PaperMissiles , @dex_eve , @nktpnd from @CarnegieEndow , @nknewsorg and their team, @TheGoodISIS possibly, .... /12

If I missed you and you're planning to do an analyze-along watch thread go ahead and add yourself. I recommend the #Juchefest hashtag for any ongoing posting so everyone can organize.

We may be waiting a while for it to start, but when it does, that's what we'll be doing. /13

I'm going to go grab a drink that has alcohol (there's a new Rum I got in...) and continue watching the propaganda hoping it doesn't take too long to start airing the real show. End thread for now. #Juchefest !! /14

I missed @annemp13 . My bad, Anne.