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Stunningly, Joe Biden may have a chance to flip Iowa back in 2020, four years after Hillary Clinton lost it by 9.4 points. It’s a high turnout state, so it’s unrealistic to anticipate him winning on the basis of turnout. But he may swing enough voters to carry the state. [1/]
![Stunningly, Joe Biden may have a chance to flip Iowa back in 2020, four years after Hillary Clinton lost it by 9.4 points. It’s a high turnout state, so it’s unrealistic to anticipate him winning on the basis of turnout. But he may swing enough voters to carry the state. [1/]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ej55dTDU4AYUSgY.jpg "Stunningly, Joe Biden may have a chance to flip Iowa back in 2020, four years after Hillary Clinton lost it by 9.4 points. It’s a high turnout state, so it’s unrealistic to anticipate him winning on the basis of turnout. But he may swing enough voters to carry the state. [1/]")
Biden’s keys to the state will lie in clawing back votes in areas with many Obama-Trump voters; counties such as Dubuque (E 39.6), Clinton (E 63.4), and Woodbury (E 49.2) will be ones that he will look to take back or, at the very least, come close in. [2/]
He’ll need to run up the margins in urban and suburban areas too; Polk (E 36.7), Story (E 45.7), Boone (E 53.0), and Scott (E 41.0). Polk and Scott are key areas of growth, and Scott’s elasticity means Biden should win by far more than the 1 point Hillary Clinton managed. [3/]
Other key counties Biden will try to flip are Wapello (E 73.2), Winnishiek (E 39.1), Lee (E 69.2), and Fayette (E 71.2). His strength with seniors could really swing the state his way, as they are a larger-than-average chunk of several of the most elastic counties in state. [4/]
This last point is key, as it indicates that Democrats have a far higher ceiling when it comes to growth in the state. Iowa swung hard to the right in 2016. Many counties voted for Trump in 2016 by margins that would have seemed unfathomable in 2012. [5/] https://twitter.com/PviGuy/status/1314644242292039680?s=20
With the environment being as Democratic as it is currently, however, a large snapback may be expected. It could be amplified by Biden’s comparative and well-documented advantage among the seniors and could result in the 2020 map more closely resembling the 2012 one. [6/]
And again, remember that he doesn't need to win all those 2012 counties -- he just needs to do better than Clinton did while expanding on her urban-suburban margins. Of course, in the process, several counties will flip. Here's how Iowa voted in 2012. [7/] https://twitter.com/PviGuy/status/1314644234591367168?s=20
A Biden victory map in 2020 may thus look like Rob Sand’s victory for Iowa State Auditor in 2018, or the Congressional vote by county in 2018 (where Democrats picked up 2 more congressional seats in the state). Here's what @PviGuy and I think it might look like [8/]
![A Biden victory map in 2020 may thus look like Rob Sand’s victory for Iowa State Auditor in 2018, or the Congressional vote by county in 2018 (where Democrats picked up 2 more congressional seats in the state). Here's what @PviGuy and I think it might look like [8/]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ej6HDRxUwAEbFtG.jpg "A Biden victory map in 2020 may thus look like Rob Sand’s victory for Iowa State Auditor in 2018, or the Congressional vote by county in 2018 (where Democrats picked up 2 more congressional seats in the state). Here's what @PviGuy and I think it might look like [8/]")
It’s true that parts of Iowa that voted for Obama have shifted permanently to the GOP, and there’s no reason to think Biden can win it back with the same margin as Obama did in 2012. But he’ll do far, far better there than Clinton did in 2016, and that might be enough. [9/]
Analysis done with @PviGuy, who knows a ton about areas and their historical and current voting patterns (go follow him!).
