THREAD: I didn& #39;t really have time to nitpick the finer data points during last night& #39;s D.A. debate, but I think we all need to be operating off the same set of crime stats when comparing Jackie Lacey& #39;s tenure in L.A. with George Gascon& #39;s in SF, so please see the below:
SAN FRANCISCO VIOLENT CRIME UNDER GASCON:
- The VC rate rose about 2% from 2011 to 2019 (meaning crime per capita/100K residents)
- Raw incidents of VC went up 10%. There& #39;s an argument the rate is the better stat, since it reflects a population increase.
SAN FRANCISCO PROPERTY CRIME UNDER GASCON:
- There& #39;s no dispute about that San Francisco saw a huge surge from & #39;11 to & #39;19, but just to clarify the numbers being thrown around last night -- 49% is the increase in raw incidents. 37% is the increase in the PC rate. Neither is good.
PROP 47 EFFECT ON CRIME: (best study on this was Public Police Institute of CA in 2018, so some quick facts)
- Prop 47 had no impact on Violent Crime
- Study found "some evidence" Prop 47 led to an increase in larceny thefts (largely driven by the auto burglary explosion in SF)
LOS ANGELES VIOLENT CRIME UNDER LACEY:
- Going city vs. city here just for comparison& #39;s sake
- L.A. VC numbers look terrible (53% spike in the rate, 59% raw), but as I tried to point out last night - LAPD& #39;s misclassification of aggravated assault crimes screws up these stats.
Not just me saying that. The same Public Policy report cited above casts doubts on California& #39;s overall VC data because of such a major caveat emanating from its largest city. You can read the LAT investigation that exposed the LAPD stat nightmare here: https://www.latimes.com/local/la-me-crimestats-lapd-20140810-story.html">https://www.latimes.com/local/la-...
Property Crime also rose in L.A. under Lacey, but a much smaller amount (9% raw, 6% rate). Of course, big question as to how much you should really be connecting crime data to D.A. performance. It& #39;s an issue in this race because Gascon& #39;s critics have sought to make it one.
Anyway, hope this is helpful. There were a lot of numbers being spouted last night, not always with great context (I was guilty of this too when it came to filing rates!). If anyone& #39;s got any questions, I& #39;ll be around!
You can follow @JamesQueallyLAT.
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