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THREAD: I didn't really have time to nitpick the finer data points during last night's D.A. debate, but I think we all need to be operating off the same set of crime stats when comparing Jackie Lacey's tenure in L.A. with George Gascon's in SF, so please see the below:
SAN FRANCISCO VIOLENT CRIME UNDER GASCON:
- The VC rate rose about 2% from 2011 to 2019 (meaning crime per capita/100K residents)
- Raw incidents of VC went up 10%. There's an argument the rate is the better stat, since it reflects a population increase.
- The VC rate rose about 2% from 2011 to 2019 (meaning crime per capita/100K residents)
- Raw incidents of VC went up 10%. There's an argument the rate is the better stat, since it reflects a population increase.
SAN FRANCISCO PROPERTY CRIME UNDER GASCON:
- There's no dispute about that San Francisco saw a huge surge from '11 to '19, but just to clarify the numbers being thrown around last night -- 49% is the increase in raw incidents. 37% is the increase in the PC rate. Neither is good.
- There's no dispute about that San Francisco saw a huge surge from '11 to '19, but just to clarify the numbers being thrown around last night -- 49% is the increase in raw incidents. 37% is the increase in the PC rate. Neither is good.
PROP 47 EFFECT ON CRIME: (best study on this was Public Police Institute of CA in 2018, so some quick facts)
- Prop 47 had no impact on Violent Crime
- Study found "some evidence" Prop 47 led to an increase in larceny thefts (largely driven by the auto burglary explosion in SF)
- Prop 47 had no impact on Violent Crime
- Study found "some evidence" Prop 47 led to an increase in larceny thefts (largely driven by the auto burglary explosion in SF)
Recidivism rates also fell significantly statewide due to Prop 47. I'm just giving you the cheat sheet, you'd do well to read the full report if this issue is critical to your decision in the race: https://www.ppic.org/publication/the-impact-of-proposition-47-on-crime-and-recidivism/#:~:text=Recidivism%20rates%20decreased%20due%20to,individuals%20released%20before%20the%20reform.
LOS ANGELES VIOLENT CRIME UNDER LACEY:
- Going city vs. city here just for comparison's sake
- L.A. VC numbers look terrible (53% spike in the rate, 59% raw), but as I tried to point out last night - LAPD's misclassification of aggravated assault crimes screws up these stats.
- Going city vs. city here just for comparison's sake
- L.A. VC numbers look terrible (53% spike in the rate, 59% raw), but as I tried to point out last night - LAPD's misclassification of aggravated assault crimes screws up these stats.
Not just me saying that. The same Public Policy report cited above casts doubts on California's overall VC data because of such a major caveat emanating from its largest city. You can read the LAT investigation that exposed the LAPD stat nightmare here: https://www.latimes.com/local/la-me-crimestats-lapd-20140810-story.html
Property Crime also rose in L.A. under Lacey, but a much smaller amount (9% raw, 6% rate). Of course, big question as to how much you should really be connecting crime data to D.A. performance. It's an issue in this race because Gascon's critics have sought to make it one.
Anyway, hope this is helpful. There were a lot of numbers being spouted last night, not always with great context (I was guilty of this too when it came to filing rates!). If anyone's got any questions, I'll be around!
