Aliyev claims to have taken Hadrut, while Armenian journalists report at that very moment from Hadrut. As ceasefire talks begin I draw conclusions from what seems the end of 2nd round of this recent war and what comes next. THREAD
#NagornoKarabakh #Azerbaijan #Armenia #Turkey
1. Azerbaijan, with the help of Turkey, terrorists, sophisticated military and huge financial resources was unable to solve the conflict militarily. That myth should be one of the biggest conclusions of this war.
2.I call it the end of the 2nd round because the 1st round was 27sep-3oct when the blitzkrieg escalated and falied. 2nd round began on 3rd with probably the heaviest military activity in the history of the SC. Az. took some empty villages in the south but then retreated from most
3.Another important takeaway is that whatever has been the role of Russia behind the developments, its deterrance does work on the Armenia-proper territory. This I explain with the intensity of talks after drones and artillery over Arm, Aliyev's rhetoric and Putin's interview.
4.Aliyev probably succeeded selling this failed war as a victory and ensure some more time for his dictatorship As regime insecurity was one of the reasons of war, this is important.
5.What follows is harsher crackdown on opposition. I am sorry for the liberal voices of peace who blindly stood behind him and will now bear the consequensec.
6.The timing to "generously give Arm another chance" is critical.🇦🇿 has definitely exhausted possibilities of significant military gains. As I said, two unprecedented waves of offensive delivered little.Continuing the war is dangerous as it may even lose the few kms it has gained
7.However, the downside for Aliyev is that he paid too high of a price for several kms and regime survival. It is dominantly associated with Turkey, disguised by all int community, loss of reputation due to terrorist, explicit sympathy of France to Armenia and other capitals too,
8.Besides being unequivocally recognized as the aggressor,Azerbaijan also lost what has remained from its FP of neutrality.Moreover, while Armenia's sovereignty had been questioned as opp to autonomy of Azerbaijan, now the opposite is true. 🇷🇺mattered less to 🇦🇲 than 🇹🇷 did to 🇦🇿
9.The war may still take weeks. But surely that military solution is off the table now. It will take years for 🇦🇿 to come up with capabilities that will allow it to plan a mltry solution.After 2016 they realized that bigger offensive is needed.A bigger one -the conclusion of this
10.People to people peace initiatives are dead. No matter how sad is this, maybe it is a good time to rethink them.Taking a priori liberal kids from Yerevan and Baku to Tbilisi for talking everything but the conflict has given virtually nothing. What it had given is now perished.
11.When the 🇦🇲 national security strategy came out saying 🇦🇲 is the guarantor of regional security, I took it as diplomaric wishful thinking. Now considering the strategic objectives of and the means used by 🇦🇿🇹🇷 I rethink and agree to 🇦🇲's that role. Armenia fights terrorism
12.Difficult times ahead of the Armenian government.Even though its rating is definitely as high as during the revolution if not higher,there are forces who will portray the war as a loss bc of the few kms. It is futile now, but over time this will discourse will only intensify
13.Foreign powers will try to capitalize on it. Azerbijan first of all, will portray Pashinyan as the reason of failed negotiations. Other powers that wish replacement of Pashinyan government will play along these narrative and assist even more the domestic forces that do so
14.Most importantly, 🇦🇲 is not going to accept the negotiating principles status quo ante. While it seems that 🇦🇿 has the upperhand, it's a delusion since it cannot for now win the war and thus blackmail. It is also hard to negotiate from the position of a terrorist recruiter
You can follow @Sukiasian_Narek.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: