A snapshot of the race for platinum subscribers:

Trump won @Harpootlian4SC Columbia-area state senate district by four points in 2016

Biden now leads Trump there by four, per a poll conducted this week for Dick.
another snapshot, for our gold subscribers....

Republican surveys had McSally competitive in Ariz

Then the Trump-Biden happened

Now she + Trump have plummeted
Another nugget we trimmed.

Trump’s campaign is shifting more $ into staving off defeat in the Sun Belt, cutting Midwest spending >> https://twitter.com/shanegoldmacher/status/1314573129348456449
What some Republicans are starting to say, though not on the record just yet:

flush the system.

in other words: It will be easier to eradicate Trumpism and reset for ‘22 in a landslide rather than a close loss.
As you look at the polling in Texas, keep in mind what happened in 2018: pre-election surveys did not fully capture Beto strength in metros.

He lost by 2.5, less than some polls had the race at the end
The 2018 Texas experience gets at the entire dilemma for Biden, and explains why he is sending Kamala there but not going himself just yet — Ds can get close but it’s still tough to get from 48 to 50 (or even 49)
Kamala + Jill > https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1314592571772076040
Here are the mailers @unitehere members are dropping at doors in metro Phx

One is for Hispanic communities, the other for more heavily white neighborhoods
Some in the GOP have been sounding the alarm about their metropolitan probs for some time.

@davidfholt delivered the below speech at a conservative confab - SRLC! - in May ‘15.

3 years later, Dems won the House seat that takes in OKC https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/601765860521443328
The potential Trump toll for Ariz Republicans. Over two elections, they *may* lose:

-Prez race for first time since 1996
-Both Senate seats
-A House seat
-Both chambers of state house
-State corp commission

and

-Voters may pass a ballot measure levying surtax on wealthy
Yup, should’ve included. A huge local race https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1314704642131935232
Ariz Republicans were hoping @cindymccain wouldn’t go all-in for Biden.

So much for that.

She appeared w him this week + now has cut a to-camera spot https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/1314938611805155328
You can follow @jmartNYT.
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