In my latest for @TheAtlantic, I write about how the perfect storm of uncertainty created by the deadly combination of COVID-19, social media and Donald Trump fuels extremism and warps reality itself https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/year-living-uncertainly/616648/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_content=edit-promo&utm_source=twitter&utm_term=2020-10-09T10%3A00%3A24

A short thread:

Social psychology research has shown for some time that feelings of uncertainty -- whether personal, social, political or economic -- make people more susceptible to extremism https://www.amazon.com/Extremism-Psychology-Uncertainty-Blackwell-Claremont-ebook/dp/B005NZMSPW/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=uncertainty+extremism&qid=1602249863&s=digital-text&sr=1-1

This effect has been pretty well-demonstrated in studies. My research of late has focused on understanding why this happens, and how extremists exploit the phenomenon.

I ended up going back to the literature on the social construction of reality. People apprehend reality by consensus, and during times of uncertainty, it becomes very important to find the right consensus. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B004X36R6G/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1

When things are profoundly uncertain, we identify the "right" consensus as the one held by "our" group and treat competing consensus held by "other" groups as a threat or attack on reality that must be forcefully repelled.

Now take that to a world where certainty is under constant assault -- by a disease we don't understand, by the ensuing economic collapse, and by a US president engaged in a nonstop assault on the truth.

But that's not all! Now add social media, where people can shop around for consensus groups, and platforms quantify consensus through likes, shares and comments. Suddenly there are thousands of competing consensuses to choose from, and identity becomes even more important.

We're about to drive off a cliff of extremism. In the article, I talk about ways we can try to counter this, but the outlook is pretty grim.

If ideas interest you, you can also explore them in a *very* different format -- my first novel, Optimal, a dystopia centered on social media and algorithms.

For a limited time, just $2.99 on Kindle, and free on Kindle Unlimited. Also in paperback. https://www.amazon.com/Optimal-J-M-Berger-ebook/dp/B08FXV4WM7/ref=sr_1_1?crid=REENPCHSY2UD&dchild=1&keywords=optimal&qid=1602250658&s=digital-text&sprefix=optimal%2Cdigital-text%2C213&sr=1-1