The problem with ignoring Covid-19.
I am really concerned that the idea we can just carry on and ignore Covid as if it was flu has gained some traction. In particular with people who should be better informed e.g. Tory MP's.
This is a short explanation of why this is an issue.1/n

The NHS has one of the lowest bed numbers per 1,000 people in the world. Below is picture of slide I used in China some years ago to demonstrate how similar our health services were!
Trust me it has got worse. 2/n

How do we do manage? Remarkably the NHS has embraced modern management of patients so we admit fewer patients overnight. Day Surgery is the norm for many surgical procedures and we try to manage many patients with acute problems at home away from the hospital. 3/n

We do this because it is the right thing to do - but there is no doubt that it has been driven by our need to save money. Each ward we close saves over £1 million per year and during the austerity years we had to downsize bed numbers.
Austerity also means many hospitals are 4/n

not set up to deal with viral infections, hence each Winter we lose beds to norovirus.
So picture is that we are running at 93-95% occupancy levels and that is with 'escalation beds' being put into the system over Winter. Escalation takes place into day surgery units and 5/n

wherever a bed can be created. Preferably where there are staff that can be used to care for these patients.
So to recap
we have less beds than EU average and far fewer than France and Germany.
We are running at 95% occupancy over the Winter despite extra beds being added 6/n

What about ICU beds? Once again we have low numbers compared to many countries. This is an investment decision at the end of the day as they are expensive to provide. Occupancy over Winter is again high - over 95% - not unusual to cancel major surgery as there is no ICU bed 7/n

So above is the reality. In a normal Winter a bad flu outbreak causes chaos in the system. Local outbreaks of Norovirus causes chaos in the system.
Now some clowns want us to just ignore Covid-19?
Sorry but are you for real?
Let me describe what would need to happen. 8/n

No hospital admissions from care homes - terminal care as best they can.
No admission to hospital of anyone over the age of 80 but that would need to be reviewed and I suspect would be reduced further.
No ICU admission for anyone over 70 or younger with major comorbidities. 9/n

Hospitals setting up 'ethical review groups' to urgently review which patients meet treatment criteria and which go for palliation.

Hospitals filled to capacity and staff working under extreme conditions that would make earlier this year look like a picnic.

Get a grip 10/n

This is just one reason why Covid-19 cannot be let rip through the population. There are many others but I hope the reality of this might just make people think.
There are many I would like to see this thread but sadly I know they won't. My hope is above does not happen. END.