Big news: the ASP is set to announce that states have failed to reach consensus on any of the shortlisted candidates for #ICC Prosecutor.

2. As a result, they are going to release the long list of candidates, with the consent of each. Candidates who consent will participate in the next round of public hearings, along with the shortlisted candidates.

3. It is possible one of the shortlisted candidates will still be elected, but the smart money says it will be one from the long list. The shortlisted candidates had their shot but didn't get over the line.

4. States are still free, of course, to nominate non-longlisted candidates. But they shouldn't, because new nominees won't have been vetted at all. Longlisted candidates were vetted and none were disqualified.

5. It will be interesting to see if any of the longlisted candidates have second thoughts as a result of the US sanctions on the #ICC. Ones with particularly close ties to the US may well not want the extra pressure.