1/x Alright. Time to spin the wheel....I probably sound like a broken record at this point, but vanna/charm flows are at their peak this week into 10/12. If you haven’t seen the overwhelming market support that comes with them, you’ve got your head in the sand.

2/x-today was an important day technically. Closing just over 1.5 stddev up yesterday & then following through meaningfully today/ holding meaningfully above has opened the door for risk parity & Vol targeting flows to put new capital to work. -The seasonality is improving fast

3/x -& despite increasing retail call buying in the last couple days, the Vol bid is much more tentative then it was near the highs in August -sentiment is equally tepid -the market has come very far/very fast and is a bit overbought, & NDX continues to lag -But when market shows

4/x this kind of price thrust in the face of numerous excuses for weakness, price momentum has to be respected & seen as a sign of robust underlying strength. -Oct OpEx skew & Vol is still running high, which tells me going into this Fri/vanna flows will be larger than usual

5/x What this means: Fading this rally until 10/12- 10/14 is a bad idea. Ivol should continue to get compressed & it’s likely they‘ll be pushed down to unfathomably low levels in the front of the curve given the upcoming risks. Do not attempt to jump in front & buy Vol yet.

6/6 There‘ll be a time for buying Vol(10/14?)as we could start to see a Vol squeeze in back of curve on a rally above 3500 mid/late next week. Watch Oct skew & vol to normalize into a rally & back month Calls to firm. Those’ ll be your signs to buy Vol & turn temp https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🐻" title="Bärengesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Bärengesicht"> Good luck!https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🍀" title="Vierblättriges Kleeblatt" aria-label="Emoji: Vierblättriges Kleeblatt">