Lately I've found myself really interested in Fantasy Premier League. Getting a good score is primarily predicated on your players getting a bunch of goals and assists. I wanted to explore which statistics are highly correlated with goals and assists.
Overall the strongest correlations for goals and assists and with the following statistics. A lot of them are the ones you would expect to be there such as Expected Goals and Expected Assists etc.
However some of the other statistics that correlate to goals scored include: Goal Creating Actions/90 mins, Shot Creating Actions/90 mins, Shots/90 minutes and Shots on Target/90 mins
Some other statistics that correlate to assists include: Passes in the Penalty Area/90 mins and Key Passes/90 mins.
Its clear that players like Mo Salah, KDB etc will get a high number of these statistics however they also cost a lot on FPL. When considering Key Passes/90 mins, Trezeguet, Townsend, Saint Maximin, Podence and Peirera represent great value.
Similarly, when considering Passes in the Penalty Area/90 mins which has a higher correlation with assists then Key Passes/90 mins, Podence, McGinn, Grealish, James and March represent great value.
And for Goal Creating Actions/90 mins and how that correlates to assists. A lot of the same names come up but Podence seems to be one that comes up very regularly.
When considering Goals Scored/90 mins I'll take a look at Shot Creating Actions/90 minutes, Goal Creating Actions/90 minutes and on Shots on Target/90 mins. Starting with SoT/90 mins... Chris Wood, Bamford and Mitrovic stand out here. Loads of opportunities for them...
Goal Creating Actions/90 minutes...
Shot Creating Actions/90 mins...
All stats via @fbref
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