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Miami Dade: Model from VBM requests (10/8), registrations, and turnout. This model is friendly to Biden getting a better turnout, and Trump may still improve by 113K in Miami Dade County. Clinton Won Miami Dade by almost 290K votes.
VBM Req till 10/08
R 158,901 D: 275,786 IND: 171,990 Total: 608,697
VBM return rate: R 75% return Rate, Dem 80%, IND: 75%
In Person (Early and Nov3): R 65%, D 50% and IND 55%
Trump gets 40% IND voters, Biden :60%
Trump Projected Total in 2020: 445,333
Biden: 621,758
R 158,901 D: 275,786 IND: 171,990 Total: 608,697
VBM return rate: R 75% return Rate, Dem 80%, IND: 75%
In Person (Early and Nov3): R 65%, D 50% and IND 55%
Trump gets 40% IND voters, Biden :60%
Trump Projected Total in 2020: 445,333
Biden: 621,758
In 2016, Trump: 333999, Clinton: 624146
Difference between 2020 and 2016: Trump +113,722.
This doesn't account for the enthusiasm gap of 8-10% @Peoples_Pundit found in polls.
Difference between 2020 and 2016: Trump +113,722.
This doesn't account for the enthusiasm gap of 8-10% @Peoples_Pundit found in polls.
Trump likely has a 2.0 % comfortable lead in Florida. The 3-4% win is not out of reach if Trump doesnt lose the 65+ base.
Trump ads in FL need to be about Seniors and GOTV for the remaining base. Florida is unlikely to be a landslide. It will most likely be 2-3% Trump, closer (around 1%) if he loses the 65+ in significant numbers.
