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26 days until the US elections.
Plenty of reasons to be hopeful, but plenty of reasons to NOT BE COMPLACENT
First: if you have a vote, VOTE. It& #39;s the most important election in a century, and only a huge defeat will ensure a clean handover
Second: some hope ...
Plenty of reasons to be hopeful, but plenty of reasons to NOT BE COMPLACENT
First: if you have a vote, VOTE. It& #39;s the most important election in a century, and only a huge defeat will ensure a clean handover
Second: some hope ...
Swing states / chance of Biden win
Arizona 67%
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="☑" title="Kästchen mit Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Kästchen mit Häkchen">
Colorado 93%https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">
Florida 70%https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">
Georgia 47%https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❌" title="Kreuzzeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Kreuzzeichen">
Iowa 43%https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❌" title="Kreuzzeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Kreuzzeichen">
Maine 89%https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">
Michigan 91%https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">
Minnesota 90%https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">
Nevada 86%https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">
N Hampshire 82%https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">
N Mexico 96%https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">
N Carolina 60%https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="☑" title="Kästchen mit Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Kästchen mit Häkchen">
Ohio 52%https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="☑" title="Kästchen mit Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Kästchen mit Häkchen">
Pennsylania 85%https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">
Virginia 98%https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">
Wisconsin 74%https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">
...
Arizona 67%
Colorado 93%
Florida 70%
Georgia 47%
Iowa 43%
Maine 89%
Michigan 91%
Minnesota 90%
Nevada 86%
N Hampshire 82%
N Mexico 96%
N Carolina 60%
Ohio 52%
Pennsylania 85%
Virginia 98%
Wisconsin 74%
...
16 key battleground states Biden is favourite in 14. Huge favourite in 11.
How many of those does Biden have to win?
They all contribute a different number of votes towards the Electoral College, so it& #39;s not straightforward. But if he wins any 7, he& #39;s won the election.
How many of those does Biden have to win?
They all contribute a different number of votes towards the Electoral College, so it& #39;s not straightforward. But if he wins any 7, he& #39;s won the election.
And if he wins Florida, Pennsylania and Michigan (all big favourites for Biden) he doesn& #39;t need any others: he& #39;s over the line.
This assumes no safe Dem states turn Rep, but honestly they& #39;re called "safe" for a reason. NY and California aren& #39;t gonna elect Trump.
This assumes no safe Dem states turn Rep, but honestly they& #39;re called "safe" for a reason. NY and California aren& #39;t gonna elect Trump.
"But the polls were wrong before"
Yep, but by 2018 midterm elections they& #39;d corrected their methods, and predicted the outcome remarkably accurately.
And with this thread I& #39;m not quoting one poll, I& #39;m reporting the betting odds based on an average of dozens.
Yep, but by 2018 midterm elections they& #39;d corrected their methods, and predicted the outcome remarkably accurately.
And with this thread I& #39;m not quoting one poll, I& #39;m reporting the betting odds based on an average of dozens.
Sources for this, if you want to check methodology, or play your own game of "plot the routes to victory"
#VoteHimOut
#VoteBidenHarris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-elec... href=" https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/sep/28/us-election-simulator-swing-states-biden-trump">https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/n...
#VoteHimOut
#VoteBidenHarris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
