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26 days until the US elections.
Plenty of reasons to be hopeful, but plenty of reasons to NOT BE COMPLACENT
First: if you have a vote, VOTE. It's the most important election in a century, and only a huge defeat will ensure a clean handover
Second: some hope ...
Plenty of reasons to be hopeful, but plenty of reasons to NOT BE COMPLACENT
First: if you have a vote, VOTE. It's the most important election in a century, and only a huge defeat will ensure a clean handover
Second: some hope ...
Swing states / chance of Biden win
Arizona 67%
Colorado 93%
Florida 70%
Georgia 47%
Iowa 43%
Maine 89%
Michigan 91%
Minnesota 90%
Nevada 86%
N Hampshire 82%
N Mexico 96%
N Carolina 60%
Ohio 52%
Pennsylania 85%
Virginia 98%
Wisconsin 74%
...
Arizona 67%
Colorado 93%
Florida 70%
Georgia 47%
Iowa 43%
Maine 89%
Michigan 91%
Minnesota 90%
Nevada 86%
N Hampshire 82%
N Mexico 96%
N Carolina 60%
Ohio 52%
Pennsylania 85%
Virginia 98%
Wisconsin 74%
...
16 key battleground states Biden is favourite in 14. Huge favourite in 11.
How many of those does Biden have to win?
They all contribute a different number of votes towards the Electoral College, so it's not straightforward. But if he wins any 7, he's won the election.
How many of those does Biden have to win?
They all contribute a different number of votes towards the Electoral College, so it's not straightforward. But if he wins any 7, he's won the election.
And if he wins Florida, Pennsylania and Michigan (all big favourites for Biden) he doesn't need any others: he's over the line.
This assumes no safe Dem states turn Rep, but honestly they're called "safe" for a reason. NY and California aren't gonna elect Trump.
This assumes no safe Dem states turn Rep, but honestly they're called "safe" for a reason. NY and California aren't gonna elect Trump.
"But the polls were wrong before"
Yep, but by 2018 midterm elections they'd corrected their methods, and predicted the outcome remarkably accurately.
And with this thread I'm not quoting one poll, I'm reporting the betting odds based on an average of dozens.
Yep, but by 2018 midterm elections they'd corrected their methods, and predicted the outcome remarkably accurately.
And with this thread I'm not quoting one poll, I'm reporting the betting odds based on an average of dozens.
Sources for this, if you want to check methodology, or play your own game of "plot the routes to victory"
#VoteHimOut
#VoteBidenHarris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/sep/28/us-election-simulator-swing-states-biden-trump
#VoteHimOut
#VoteBidenHarris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/sep/28/us-election-simulator-swing-states-biden-trump
