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So here is EY's press release, more empty scare stories about Brexit & the City THREAD https://www.ey.com/en_uk/news/2020/09/ey-financial-services-brexit-tracker-fs-firms-continue-moving-staff-ahead-of-brexit-deadline
1/ There is no breakdown by company of the job relocations, even though all firms which are relocating jobs have made such announcements. I have been tracking them bottom up & they do not come to more than 5k
2/ There has been a lot of fake news in this area. JP Morgan originally suggested it would move 4k jobs. The real number was 200. UBS said 1,000, the real number - also 200
3/ A board member for Deutsche Bank floated 4k, the real number was less than 1/10th ... before it shut its global equities business which swamped the Brexit numbers
4/ EY was responsible for the ludicrous forecast of an up to 230,000 jobs impact on the City due to Brexit in a no deal scenario https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/03/20/the-biggest-threat-to-the-city-of-london-is-now-uncertainty/
5/ EY are now claiming, without providing company figures, that there are 7,500 jobs that will leave
6/ 7,500 compared to an estimate of 230k is pretty laughable. It's like a Neil Ferguson pandemic deaths forecast. But even that 7,500 is a big stretch
7/ Without seeing the company by company numbers we don't know how many unrealistic, stale company estimates like JP Morgan's 4k are included in that number
8/ If we just rely on what companies have actually said in public, you only get <5,000. Even so, if we're generous & assume EY have got it right for once, 7,500 is <1% UK financial services jobs
9/ Of course, Remoaners are trying to claim this is just the beginning. "We haven't left yet" etc. But EY themselves admit "Many Financial Services Firms had implemented the bulk of their relocation plans before the start of the year"
10/ He also admits that they need to have any operations required to be in the EU by 1 January 2020.
11/ As I have regularly pointed out, only retail or dtc City activities need to move. All City firms with such activities have announced their relocation plans. With only three months to go, none of those who needs to go is going to wait until then to make a decision
12/ Now remember, the 7,500 (which is really <5,000) represents announced job relocations. And in the preceding tweet I explained that anyone who needs to relocate will have had to announce it by now
13/ Therefore, that 7,500 (which is really <5,000) is all there is. There is nothing more to come. The cat is out of the bag. There are no City firms which will wait till transition ends which will announce further relocations
14/ The end of the transition is not exactly a surprise. All City firms affected have said they had to plan for the worse. Otherwise their clients might experience an interruption in service. No one is going to risk that
15/ EY, like Bloomberg (on whose two deceptive scare pieces I will write in a separate thread) are just trying to rattle the Brits one last time while they can. But pay no attention ...
16/ In summary
(i) 7,500 is <1% City jobs & rich coming from the fools who predicted 230k
(ii) if you add up what companies have actually announced you get <5k
(iii) any relocation that had to happen has been announced. There is NO MORE. END
(i) 7,500 is <1% City jobs & rich coming from the fools who predicted 230k
(ii) if you add up what companies have actually announced you get <5k
(iii) any relocation that had to happen has been announced. There is NO MORE. END
Afterthought. The EY whose 230k forecast the Remoaners took as Gospel is of course the same EY that signed off the fraudulent Wirrcard accounts https://www.wiwo.de/my/finanzen/geldanlage/zahlungsdienstleister-wirecard-skandal-ey-sieht-sich-als-opfer-und-aufklaerer/26257026.html
