A great conversation with @NPRKelly just now helped me crystallize some thoughts on Russia and the West. In the spirit of twitter, written without nuance. Comments welcome. THREAD 1/

Conventional wisdom: Russia is a weak and declining power. In fact, Russia is much powerful today than 20 years ago. Russia has significant conventional military, nuclear, cyber, intelligence, economic & ideational power, second in the aggregate only to the US & China. 2/

Conventional wisdom: Putin plays his weak cards craftily. In fact, Putin's belligerent foreign policies -- interventions in Ukraine, Syria, U.S.; assassinations attempt in UK in 2018; support for dictators in former USSR -- have weakened Russia. 3/

Conventional wisdom: Putin is a transactional leader. In fact, Putin is a very ideological leader. His worldview is shaped by illiberalism-- orthodoxy, nationalism, anti-multilateralism. In RT, Sputnik, NGOS, etc, he has made giant financial investments to propagate Putinism. 4/

If Putin is so transactional, why hasn't he completed one major transaction with Trump, who also fancies himself as a transactional leader. (Art of the Deal, businessman, etc)? 5/

Conventional wisdom: Putin's strong hand made the Russian economy grow. In fact, the growing economy, which started growing in 1999 before Putin became president in 2000, has supported autocratic consolidation. Putin's autocracy has slowed growth. 6/

Russians are richer today than maybe anytime in their history. But they would have been so much richer had the regime deepened liberal, rule of law, democratic institutions in 2000, rather than destroy them. 7/

Conventional wisdom: U.S. needs to peel Russia away from China just like Nixon peeled China away from the USSR in the 1970s. In reality, Putin would never abandon his closest partner to take a chance on erratic US. (Sino-Soviet split happened long before US-China rapprochement) 8

What did I get wrong? Thanks again @NPRKelly @UVA @StatecraftLab @Miller_Center @UVADemocracy ! END THREAD 9/