1/ Waymo is on the cusp of making history with a fully commercial robotaxi launch. It must be VERY confident in fully driverless rides to make this push. https://blog.waymo.com/2020/10/waymo-is-opening-its-fully-driverless.html

2/ In the past 5 years we've seen a handful of automakers promise a 2020 launch and fail to come through. Today, many are not even close. https://www.group1nissan.co.za/blog/nissan-news/nissan-promises-to-deliver-autonomous-car-by-2020/

3/ Waymo even pushed back its commercial timeline, which was originally supposed to be last year. A lot of doubt has been cast on the pace of progress.. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/12/technology/self-driving-cars-coronavirus.html

4/ And some could argue rightfully so. No company has pulled it off yet, so why should we believe it's just around the corner? At ARK, we've been saying for years that the pace of AI improvement can happen sooner than you might think. Just ask @jwangARK

5/ While it's incredibly hard to predict exactly when breakthroughs will happen, the future cash flows off of global robotaxis should still be worth $1-2T today, even if its a year (or two!) late: https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/Big%20Ideas%202020-Final_011020.pdf?hsCtaTracking=78df7914-8393-4b78-b326-7dfb47024083%7C4ade617d-5fc7-4646-b699-84d7ac1213c6

6/ The first robotaxis likely won't be autonomous everywhere, all weather, all scenarios, but even a level 4 (some remote human help, a small % of the time) autonomous taxi could still be less than half the cost of driving your personal car.

7/ So sure, Waymo is late. Service is still not open for any member of the public quite yet, although Waymo promises that's soon to follow. But make no mistake, we're on the edge of the most significant change in mobility in over 100 years.