Read on Twitter
Right time for “guess the ONS estimate” game.
As before I think ONS generally as a good correlation between estimated infections and admissions 7-10 days later using a 3% hospitalisation rate.
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As before I think ONS generally as a good correlation between estimated infections and admissions 7-10 days later using a 3% hospitalisation rate.
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As you can see in the week up to 1st week in oct the growth rate in admissions slowed to almost zero. This is what ONS was indicating in last weeks survey.
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Using my calculation in tweet one of this thread, this is how it looks. The levelling off of admissions showing in estimated infections compared to ons daily modelled infections.
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Based on that, we’ve had a 52% increase in the 7 day admission average.
On that basis I’m estimating a daily estimate of 14300-15000 tomorrow. Up from (8600)
Prevalence at 0.32 (up from 0.21)
Thread Ends.
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On that basis I’m estimating a daily estimate of 14300-15000 tomorrow. Up from (8600)
Prevalence at 0.32 (up from 0.21)
Thread Ends.
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P.s this survey doesn’t include students so it might for first time show a similar number to what we are actually finding.
