OPSEC plan:
Secure location
Seize and secure all mobile phones to prevent surveillance
Honour system that no one is wearing a wire

All that security to protect against “them” but nothing to protect against “us”

These muppets used balloons to make IEDs that didn’t work. And they documented it with pics and videos. That they posted to Facebook? And apparently it was “bring your felony to crime plotting camp” day. Go ahead FRANKs, show everyone your illegal weapons modifications

These guys have a real “us” vs “them” mentality and it makes them vulnerable. The security risk is from “them” who are all bad guys, not “us” who are the good guys. They don’t seem to grasp that planning to commit violent felonies w/ 8 randos they met on Facebook is a stupid idea

I had to number the sections in this paragraph, there’s just too much crazy.
i.) secure meeting with the really eager new guy to discuss details of the felony conspiracy? Why not take notes while you’re at it!?!

ii.) The strategic planning on display makes the underwear gnomes seem like Sun Tzu level masters. “First thing we do, we kidnap the governor, the it’s all over man, we win. I mean next we kill her, but you know, after the laying on of hands, we win.”

iii.) the entire plan seems to be to kidnap and kill the governor. But mostly to kidnap...

iv.) this gets less organised the more they plan. “Get the governor at her house, then... go somewhere and ... a trial!” Great thinking, what this murder needs is a group vote.

v.) they don’t know where she lives so they’re going to ask a realtor. I guess they don’t have Google? And creating a trail of witnesses seems like a brilliant OPSEC move.
And the detailed recon. This is really a bit over the top for a plan that is 2 sentences long.

vim.) they need blueprints. To snatch the governor outside her home they need blueprints. Not a plan for what to do or a reason why snatching the governor is the correct action. Blueprints. And more witnesses, of course.

nvim.) what this criminal conspiracy needs is more people. Given the amount of recruiting FOX is advocating I can’t help thinking he’s maybe just lonely? Dude, there’s better ways to expand your social circle than with ppl who’ll commit crimes with Facebook friends.

Encryption protects against outsiders. Covert human sources? Not so much

After much deliberation FOX has decided to go with ships original plan of kidnapping the governor... somewhere... for some reason, to some end.
Incidentally, this is the safest conspiracy session FOX has held. OPSEC++
And so of course he posts about it on Facebook.

One of the guys wises up and doesn’t want to talk in the open about crimes. They decide to have a recorded phone call and crimes instead. FOX is back to the movie inspired reconnaissance phase of his kidnap plan. Now it’s time for “someone” to go do it.

Cont. but HARRIS figured if you’re looking at her house that’s effectively the same thing as murder, so just commit murder instead. What world do these guys inhabit that a bunch of Facebook randos can keep the murderer’s identity secret? They post everything on Facebook ffs!

Cont. FOX is on his shit about kidnapping, but now he’s also on an arson kick. Will he need a plumber to get blueprints for the boat?
FRANKS is down with arson, kidnapping, murder, whatever “so long as it’s well planned.” ...I got some bad news for you, bro

Using open codes is almost never a good idea. Years ago I wrote a guide on using code phrases, https://grugq.github.io/blog/2013/12/21/codes-what-are-they-good-for/
The guys who can’t make black powder blow up with a fuse are considering a large scale bombing operation. This seems more aspirational than operational

On the terrorists open codes: they are consistent and have internal logic, which is good. Still, I can’t help but wonder how much further they would have gotten if they’d read the cartoon guide to smoking weed and stay out of jail. Stoners are better at security than these guys.

i.) The group figures out that the most pressing security issue is that one of them is working for the Feds. They figure that the infiltration will involve a fake name, and the Feds can’t produce false identity documents. This are false assumptions about how informers work.

i.cont.) In all honesty these guys would have better luck pursuing “if you’re an undercover cop you have to tell me.” At least this would be a direct interrogation of potential informants, not just a check on whether they’re unable to make a fake drivers license.

ii.) These guys are really into performative terrorism. They need to conduct surveillance, so one of them goes out and spends 4 grand on a helmet (???) and night vision goggles. Which he then brags about. “Make your terrorism reconnaissance pop with the right accessories.”

ii.cont.) This entire farce really seems like a sort of LARP terrorism with real guns. They’re going out to the woods, they’re hanging out and fantasising about their plans, they’re letting anyone join in, they’re buying new equipment to show off at the next meet...

iii.) Security for these guys is ritualistic and performative. They believe that they are protected because they use encrypted messengers. When they feel scared they perform the “get a new encrypted messenger totem” ritual to assuage their fears.

iii.cont.) If they thought about the problem for even a second they would realise that changing the communications tool they use to talk with an FBI informant will not, in fact, protect them from an FBI informant. This is the “us” vs. “them” thinking again.

iii.cont.) I like to think the FBI aren’t literally laughing their asses off when they type these up, but then I read lines like “Because the group still included CHS-2, the FBI has maintained the ability to consensually monitor the chat communications.”

Things are moving forward with the plan. The group start to conduct surveillance on the vacation house. This involves looking for the address on Google Maps, but failing, then phoning a friend for help. The friend helpfully sends StreetView images.

They take pictures and film the house while slow rolling through the neighbourhood. This sort of pre-operational surveillance is actually one of the most vulnerable phases in a terrorist plot. See the work of @stick631 on why this is the ideal time to detect a threat.

There are some very bizarre events for real terrorists, but they make total sense if you think of these guys as performative. They are doing what they think “operators” do. They’re playing “Spec Ops” but with real guns, and against a middle aged woman living in a remote house.

I particularly like that they find a reason to organise a boat outing as well.

StreetView is actually sufficient surveillance for a street grab or shooting someone at home. They should be investing their time and resources into planning a getaway. Real terrorists (and criminals) plan the escape first, then see if they can fit the action to the plan

An example of a real terrorist plan for an action is provided in one of my blogs. https://grugq.tumblr.com/post/109682833058/a-provisional-ira-operations-plan

For terrorists (not suicide ones, obviously) the measure of success is getting away. If they accomplish their objective, that is a secondary bonus. (This is long war theory)

There are some rules that action groups have learned make it a lot safer to conduct illegal acts. Step zero, before anything else, don’t build your affinity group from a bunch of randos, even if they seem cool on Facebook.

i.) They take the surveillance pictures and videos and share them with the group. The more I see of these guys, the more I wonder why they don’t just make their iCloud streams available to each other. They could save some time and also have an Instagram Insurgency.

ii.) When the idea for a boat outing is tabled, the first thing that the guy with the boat does is suggest making it super suspicious and highly noticeable. But, from another perspective, also really tactical and awesome. These guys like tactical coolness over cover and secrecy.

ii.cont.) Again, that is because they are not competent terrorists. They are LARPing a death squad. Amusing, but also extremely dangerous because a bunch of dudes all egging each other on will eventually lead to tragedy. See Kenosha and Portland for the most recent examples

iii.) What I like about this interaction is the guy that didn’t participate in the activity wants to show willing. He wasn’t there but he is totally still contributing to the plan. He’s still cool, right guys? This kidnapping is turning into a “yes, and...” improv

iv.) The great part about the plan to blow up a bridge is... how many balloons of black powder do they figure that is going to take?

iv.cont.) Let’s examine the thinking going on here. GARBIN is talking with one other person on an encrypted messenger. The only person who has to figure out what he is saying is CHS-2 (who can explain it to the FBI). What possible purpose does emoji code serve? It is performative

iv.cont.) Just like whispers and surreptitious looking around is a great way to attract attention, this sort of coded language is a way to indicate that he is proposing about something taboo and cool. It has no security function. It is a display.

v.) Finally, this constant documenting of the planning is really so amazingly stupid, but also so critical to the real purpose of this plot. They need to show each other how dedicated they are to the idea and how they’re participating, contributing their vital tactical skills.

“Lotta new faces here. For some of you this is your first time at Criminal Felony Conspiracy Camp, so let me bring you up to speed on our felony conspiracy.”
CHS = covert human source, a civilian informant
UCE = undercover employee, an FBI agent with fake glasses and moustache

My guess is that things are progressing far enough in the plot that the FBI wants to bring the hammer down soon. They’re sending in the guy who is gonna make sure that there is solid evidence of intent and concrete steps taken to commit felonies.

The new IED kit is: a firework; black powder; pennies, and electrical tape. Upset at the balloon bomb incident this time they’re taking no chances. They tamper with a commercial explosive device until it will malfunction. A sort of weird machine IED.

Given that they have somehow managed to craft an anti personnel device, one has to ask: how is this going to be used for kidnapping? What role does this penny bomb firework play in their—kidnap a middle aged lady; shoot at a house, and/or burn a boat—plans? None. It’s just cool

Final note on para 28: With the two wires the Feds now have everything in stereo.

Interlude: This reminds me of a problem the British had with running informants inside the IRA. Informants were not supposed to commit crimes, the didn’t have immunity. But, in the famous words of one informant (an innovative bomb maker) “you cannot pretend to be a terrorist”

With this group it seems like it is almost the opposite problem. They need them to stop pretending and actually do something. Here’s the cite for the IRA informer https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/04/double-blind/304710/

FOX assembles a team of a dozen people, 25% of whom are reporting to the FBI, to go drive around. Unfortunately for some of the guys, this means they miss out on the field trip. They are pissed.

This collection of twelve people, two of whom are new (the UCEs have to be relatively new) and four of whom are randos not involved in the core plotting. This is a group which shouldn’t exist, but since it does their need to know does not extend to the full kidnapping plan.

Things start to get a bit hectic as the Means Motive and Opportunity converge. CROFT gets really excited and wants to *do* something. They’re trying to do recon for their big kidnapping plot, but now CROFT wants to escalate and shoot stuff. They’re unable to focus on the mission.

The lack of discipline is really telling. One member of the terrorist group has a spur of the moment impulse to just shoot shit. They can’t use leadership authority or discipline to stop him derailing everything. This group has such a flat hierarchy that no ones in charge.

Again this speaks to the fantasist nature of the group. They’re all heroic lone warriors, a mob of individuals. They’re barely even a gang. Gangs have leaders. Here the only leadership seems to be leadership by initiative. But without discipline they’re just an armed mob.

For a group completely unable to fashion a working IED they’re really excited about elaborate bomb plots. The kidnapping, if done successfully, who raise no immediate alarms. They would rely on stealth to escape to their safe house for the “trial.”

An elaborate series of bombings would attract more law enforcement, it would draw attention to the size of the conspiracy, and it would create a huge amount of evidence. Bombs leave a lot of evidence. It is nonsensical for the kidnapping, but these guys can’t focus on the mission

The logistical complexity of carrying out multiple synchronised bomb attacks is far beyond what this team can manage. I’m not convinced they could arrange to all meet at a McDonald’s at the same time. Synchronised bombing was an al Qaeda hallmark because it is hard.

The three car loads of Keystone Kidnappers are deploying around the vacation home. Which is on an island. Only accessible by ferry. And there are no roads. How exactly are they going to transport the governor after they grab her? This seems like a crucial detail.