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1/25
Fooled by Mind
Part 1 – Digital Conman
This series of threads will be based on Behavioural science. How people use weakness of our sense making system and try to fool us.
Why do we make mistakes?
Fooled by Mind
Part 1 – Digital Conman
This series of threads will be based on Behavioural science. How people use weakness of our sense making system and try to fool us.
Why do we make mistakes?
2/25
Our sense making system is inherently flawed. We r wired is such way that we r prone to make mistakes n people like conman, marketer, advertising, astrologer, politician, journalist, stock broker, ecommerce sites etc know this secrete n use this human weakness to exploit u
Our sense making system is inherently flawed. We r wired is such way that we r prone to make mistakes n people like conman, marketer, advertising, astrologer, politician, journalist, stock broker, ecommerce sites etc know this secrete n use this human weakness to exploit u
3/25
After going through all these threads You will know all these secrets of behavioural science. You will be better decision maker and It will be hard for anyone to exploit you.
After going through all these threads You will know all these secrets of behavioural science. You will be better decision maker and It will be hard for anyone to exploit you.
4/25
1st part is abt Scocial media conman. Those people who present themselves as Activist, Crusader, Influencer, James Bond, Sherlok etc. They present a false digital personality and win your trust but their actual target is woman or money.
But How you start to trust them ?
1st part is abt Scocial media conman. Those people who present themselves as Activist, Crusader, Influencer, James Bond, Sherlok etc. They present a false digital personality and win your trust but their actual target is woman or money.
But How you start to trust them ?
5/25
On the basis of my analysis, I found mostly they attack on 4 weaknesses of your mind.
1.Probability
2.Heuristic
3.Confirmation Bias
4.Hindsight Bias
On the basis of my analysis, I found mostly they attack on 4 weaknesses of your mind.
1.Probability
2.Heuristic
3.Confirmation Bias
4.Hindsight Bias
6/25
Probability means what is possibility of some event to happen. Astrologers use this technique extensively but some conman who present themselves Sherlock Holmes also use this technique
Probability means what is possibility of some event to happen. Astrologers use this technique extensively but some conman who present themselves Sherlock Holmes also use this technique
7/25
Every event have some probability associated with it. Probability ranges from 0 to 100% where 0 means that event will not happen at all and 100% means that event will definitely happen. These conman know very well how to play with these probability.
Every event have some probability associated with it. Probability ranges from 0 to 100% where 0 means that event will not happen at all and 100% means that event will definitely happen. These conman know very well how to play with these probability.
8/25
Suppose I tweet:
-Modi will win
Probability to happen this event is 50%
I tweet one more post
-Trump will win
Probability to happen any one event out of these 2 events is 75%
Suppose I tweet:
-Modi will win
Probability to happen this event is 50%
I tweet one more post
-Trump will win
Probability to happen any one event out of these 2 events is 75%
9/25
I tweet one more post
-Putin will win
Now Probability to happen any one event out of these 3 events is 82.5%
So they will tweet lot of post. As No of tweets increases probability to happen that prediction correct also increases.
I tweet one more post
-Putin will win
Now Probability to happen any one event out of these 3 events is 82.5%
So they will tweet lot of post. As No of tweets increases probability to happen that prediction correct also increases.
10/25
Now delete those tweets that proved wrong and post the screenshot of those tweet that proved right.
Chamatkar ko Namaskar
We have tendency to make opinion on one piece of information.
Now delete those tweets that proved wrong and post the screenshot of those tweet that proved right.
Chamatkar ko Namaskar
We have tendency to make opinion on one piece of information.
11/25
Check this:
Tweet 1: Modi will take the SSR case to logical end
Tweet 2: Deal has occurred between BJP and SS on SSR case
Probability of getting one tweet correct is 100%
I just need to delete wrong one and post the SS of right one later.
Check this:
Tweet 1: Modi will take the SSR case to logical end
Tweet 2: Deal has occurred between BJP and SS on SSR case
Probability of getting one tweet correct is 100%
I just need to delete wrong one and post the SS of right one later.
12/25
Heuristics
We make two type of judgements, one when we have certainty to validate and when we have uncertainty to validate
When we make decision under uncertainty we use heuristics to make judgements.
Heuristics means mental shortcuts
Heuristics
We make two type of judgements, one when we have certainty to validate and when we have uncertainty to validate
When we make decision under uncertainty we use heuristics to make judgements.
Heuristics means mental shortcuts
13/25
A quiz for u. Lets see how intelligent r u
At the time of my college. I had two classmates – Katrina and Aruna
Who was more beautiful?
If your answer is Katrina then you just used heuristic to make judgement.
Correct answer is : I don’t know
A quiz for u. Lets see how intelligent r u
At the time of my college. I had two classmates – Katrina and Aruna
Who was more beautiful?
If your answer is Katrina then you just used heuristic to make judgement.
Correct answer is : I don’t know
14/25
My father have three children
Their name are April, May and……..
What's the name of third one
If you answered June. You just used heuristic
My father have three children
Their name are April, May and……..
What's the name of third one
If you answered June. You just used heuristic
15/25
Cost of Bat and Ball is Rs 110
Bat is costly Rs 100 than Ball
What is their individual cost ?
If you answered Rs 100 and Rs 10 you just used Heuristics
Correct answer is Rs 105 and Rs 5
Cost of Bat and Ball is Rs 110
Bat is costly Rs 100 than Ball
What is their individual cost ?
If you answered Rs 100 and Rs 10 you just used Heuristics
Correct answer is Rs 105 and Rs 5
16/25
Confirmation Bias
We have tendency to believe on those information, news, fact that reinforce our pre existing beliefs
If I tweet – Farmer bill will help Modi
Then all those who want to see Modi win will easily believe on my tweet
bhale hi maine tukka mara ho
Confirmation Bias
We have tendency to believe on those information, news, fact that reinforce our pre existing beliefs
If I tweet – Farmer bill will help Modi
Then all those who want to see Modi win will easily believe on my tweet
bhale hi maine tukka mara ho
17/25
If I tweet – Congress was behind 26/11 attack
All those who hate Congress will easily believe on it without asking me how did I get this info
If I tweet – Congress was behind 26/11 attack
All those who hate Congress will easily believe on it without asking me how did I get this info
18/25
Hindsight Bias
A complete book can be written on Hindsight Bias. It means we have tendency to see past event less random. Our mind loves to search patterns. Try to connect dots where actually no connection
Hindsight Bias
A complete book can be written on Hindsight Bias. It means we have tendency to see past event less random. Our mind loves to search patterns. Try to connect dots where actually no connection
19/25
These social media conman steal the high probability information and combine Heuristics with confirmation bias and Hindsight bias in such a way that you start to believe that these guys are genius like Sherlock Holmes or James Bond.
These social media conman steal the high probability information and combine Heuristics with confirmation bias and Hindsight bias in such a way that you start to believe that these guys are genius like Sherlock Holmes or James Bond.
20/25
Check this:
Pappu met to ISI Chief in Turkey
Do you think Pappu will meet ISI Chief openly ? Then How someone sitting in his room can find that Pappu is meeting whom in Turkey ?
Check this:
Pappu met to ISI Chief in Turkey
Do you think Pappu will meet ISI Chief openly ? Then How someone sitting in his room can find that Pappu is meeting whom in Turkey ?
21/25
Disha was pregnant by Baby Penguin
Even Arnav doesn't know it then How do you know ?
But we start to believe these tweets coz we want to believe it (Heuristic with Confirmation Bias) n we start to believe that these conman are really genius.
Disha was pregnant by Baby Penguin
Even Arnav doesn't know it then How do you know ?
But we start to believe these tweets coz we want to believe it (Heuristic with Confirmation Bias) n we start to believe that these conman are really genius.
22/25
Conman strategy-
1. Steal the information by googling or stalking
2. Post as much so that probability increases
3. Post on such topics that u cant validate (Heuristic)
4. Post such that you want to read (Confirmation Bias)
5. Fulfil the need of your mind to find patterns
Conman strategy-
1. Steal the information by googling or stalking
2. Post as much so that probability increases
3. Post on such topics that u cant validate (Heuristic)
4. Post such that you want to read (Confirmation Bias)
5. Fulfil the need of your mind to find patterns
23/25
When they have got your trust they can use you anything they want. They can ask you (Woman) for date. They can ask you to donate for a cause.
Purpose of this thread was to make you aware about your weaknesses of Judgement making and make you aware to think rationally
When they have got your trust they can use you anything they want. They can ask you (Woman) for date. They can ask you to donate for a cause.
Purpose of this thread was to make you aware about your weaknesses of Judgement making and make you aware to think rationally
24/25
James Bond and Sherlock Holmes exists only in movies. The world is more random than we think. No need to give meaning to every shape.
Dont mistake in considering bluff as skill
We are flawed beyond repair but dont let other to use it.
James Bond and Sherlock Holmes exists only in movies. The world is more random than we think. No need to give meaning to every shape.
Dont mistake in considering bluff as skill
We are flawed beyond repair but dont let other to use it.
25/25
Our emotional system exerts more control on us that rational system. We are designed in such a way.
When you know your weakness you can defend your weakness.
Let these conman not to exploit you further
Think Rationally
In next thread I will talk about astrologers
Our emotional system exerts more control on us that rational system. We are designed in such a way.
When you know your weakness you can defend your weakness.
Let these conman not to exploit you further
Think Rationally
In next thread I will talk about astrologers
