Have been getting asked a lot about whether its safe for President Trump and VP Biden to debate in person on October 15.

So here are some thoughts.

Bottom line: depends on how luck we feel

But here's a bit more detail

Thread

CDC recommendations for isolation for people with mild to moderate disease is 10 days after symptom onset.

If we assume symptom onset was October 1, then debate Oct 15 should be fine

But for "more severe" disease, infected people remain infectious out to 20 days

2/n

But there's a twist

President got steroids early in disease course (day 3) which likely affects duration of viral shedding

Steroids likely extend shedding of SARS-CoV2

We saw this with MERS (another coronavirus) and have some evidence with COVID

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphar.2020.01198/full

3/n

And no clear definition of moderate vs severe disease in CDC guidance

CDC says nothing about testing to clear an immunocompetent person who got steroids (like Mr. Trump)

So what's the bottom line?

It's POSSIBLE that on 10/15, President Trump might be no longer infectious

4/5

But it is also possible, especially given his steroids, that he would still be shedding virus on 10/15

We don't know

Which is why I ask

Its 2020

How lucky do we feel?

If I were @JoeBiden's physician, I would recommend against an in person debate

Fin