@JoeBiden v. Trump 10/8 UPDATE

Nat’l: Biden +8.9 / Clinton +4.5
Electoral College: Biden 320-121 (+199) / Clinton 263-181 (+82)

Biden 50%+ in NINE battlegrounds, 49%+ in ELEVEN

ZERO for Clinton; highest 45.5%, ≤43% in 14

>1%+ change since 9/15:
11 --> Biden
3 --> Trump

NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 averages

2. Likely Voter (LV) when available, otherwise Registered Voter (RV); no Adult (A)

3. Polls w/3rd party used when given

4. Turnout-hypothesizing polls not used

5. Outliers (10%+ off of average) excluded

ETERNAL REMINDERS:

1. 2016 nat'l + battlegrounds polling AVERAGES were accurate (≥5%), except WI/IA:

https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Reports/An-Evaluation-of-2016-Election-Polls-in-the-U-S.aspx

2. This is NOT A FORECAST; it is a REPORT on the current data. Earliest possible guess at election outcome 11/1, if then, and probably with caveats.

3. And FYI, forecasts aren't "yes/no" *predictions* They're probability reports, and 538's largely matched Team Trump's ~30%. Think of them like the hurricane path charts that show all possibilities, and indicating which ones are most likely.

CONTEXT:

10/8: 30 days to 2016 election; 26 days in 2020

First debate: 2016 on 9/26; 2020 on 9/29

10/2/20: Trump CoVid diagnosis public

10/7/16: "Access Hollywood" AND first Clinton emails (pics: GOP-led Senate Intel on collusion b/t Trump campaign and Wikileaks via Russia)

A1. Average undecideds + 3rd party in battlegrounds was 18.5% on 10/8/16, more than TWICE the 7.1% of 10/8/20. Biden’s current lead greater than ALL remaining undecideds + 3rd party in NINE battlegrounds; ZERO for Clinton.

A1a. So while some 2020 battleground margins similar to 2016, Biden's in a much stronger position, w/263 EV from states w/Biden averages 50%+ (280 w/49%+). To win, Trump would not only have to get late deciders and big turnout like 2016, but actually *convert* Biden supporters!

A1b. On 10/8/16, ALL battlegrounds (i.e., margin ≤10%) had double-digit undecideds.

ALL BUT TWO "lean Clinton" battlegrounds had more undecideds + 3rd party than all "lean Trump" battlegrounds, so more room to grow in "Clinton battlegrounds" than "Trump battlegrounds."

A1c. In 2020, only ONE "Trump battleground” (traditionally red SC), and only TWO double-digit undec/3rd (MN, NE-2). Also, ALL tossups went red in 2016.

In four "Biden battlegrounds" where lead is smaller than undec/3rd, Trump needs an average of 85% of non-Biden voters to win!

Finally, a deep dive into September polls, showing why Biden’s leading, debate polls, early voters, 2016 non-voters, enthusiasm, and as always, way too many reasons why 2020 is so very different from 2016: https://twitter.com/NoTeamsIndy/status/1311706053621538816

Finally, remember that whatever the data shows now, it can always CHANGE.

Also, whatever the polls say, they don’t mean anything unless you vote. So check your registration and make your voting plan at http://www.IWillVote.com , and then VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE!!!