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The Edinburgh Study all the papers are talking about, here it is. It`s really something. An updated model using the current death and case numbers vs reduced measures
Turns out we haven't saved any lives with the lockdown... In fact, more have died. https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588
Turns out we haven't saved any lives with the lockdown... In fact, more have died. https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588
That is without the additional deaths from missed cancer screenings, poverty, etc...
Appreciate again not everyone has time to read a full study. So I've noted the key bits
Appreciate again not everyone has time to read a full study. So I've noted the key bits
First on the methods, the study used CovSim to predict a range of scenarios, and combination of measures, including:
School closures
Uni closures
Case isolation - those who have symptoms stay at home
Self-Quarantine - individual decision to isolate
Lockdown
Social Distance..
School closures
Uni closures
Case isolation - those who have symptoms stay at home
Self-Quarantine - individual decision to isolate
Lockdown
Social Distance..
and importantly, SD of over 70`s only. Meaning the rest of the population has no measures.
Results:
The Study explains that Herd Immunity is key to preventing DEATHS, but not infections. Increased measures means 3 spikes of less net cases, but more deaths.
Results:
The Study explains that Herd Immunity is key to preventing DEATHS, but not infections. Increased measures means 3 spikes of less net cases, but more deaths.
Finding
"Postponing the spread of covid-19 means that more people are still infectious and are available to infect older age groups, of whom a much larger fraction then die"
This is because the measures have to eventually end. Exposing the vulnerable with low HIT
"Postponing the spread of covid-19 means that more people are still infectious and are available to infect older age groups, of whom a much larger fraction then die"
This is because the measures have to eventually end. Exposing the vulnerable with low HIT
Findings: The 3 peaks vs 1 peak, cases vs deaths explained
"In the case isolation, household quarantine, and social distancing of over 70s scenario, a single peak of cases is seen, with greatest infection in the younger age groups but most deaths in the older age groups......
"In the case isolation, household quarantine, and social distancing of over 70s scenario, a single peak of cases is seen, with greatest infection in the younger age groups but most deaths in the older age groups......
In the place closures, case isolation, household quarantine, and social distancing of over 70s scenario, three peaks occur in the plot of daily cases, with the first peak appearing at a similar time to the other scenario, but with reduced severity.
The second peak seems to be a response to the ending of place closure and mostly affects the younger age groups; therefore has little impact on the total number of deaths. The third peak triggered by relaxing social distancing of over 70s affects the older age groups.....
leading to a substantial increase in the total number of deaths"
We are actively and knowingly pursuing a strategy that will lead to a substantial increase in deaths. All because we struggle say out loud that people will need to die to save more...
We are actively and knowingly pursuing a strategy that will lead to a substantial increase in deaths. All because we struggle say out loud that people will need to die to save more...
Finding: School closures kill more
We confirm that adding school and university closures to case isolation, household quarantine, and social distancing of over 70s would lead to more deaths compared with the equivalent scenario without the closures of schools and universities
We confirm that adding school and university closures to case isolation, household quarantine, and social distancing of over 70s would lead to more deaths compared with the equivalent scenario without the closures of schools and universities
So on schools, the attainment gap widened during the lockdown between poor and rich students by 46% (source below) for what? Because it did not save any lives. Double error. https://www.cypnow.co.uk/news/article/attainment-gaps-widens-for-first-time-in-12-years
Furthermore on schools
They note:
We note that in assessing the impact of school closures, UK policy advice has concentrated on reducing total number of cases and not the number of deaths.
They note:
We note that in assessing the impact of school closures, UK policy advice has concentrated on reducing total number of cases and not the number of deaths.
Study concludes:
If the case isolation, household quarantine, and social distancing of over 70s strategy is followed, alongside other non-pharmaceutical intervention measures such as non-mandatory social distancing and improved medical outcomes....
If the case isolation, household quarantine, and social distancing of over 70s strategy is followed, alongside other non-pharmaceutical intervention measures such as non-mandatory social distancing and improved medical outcomes....
the second wave will grow more slowly than the first, with more cases but lower mortality.........
This means, to have less total deaths we need more cases within the younger population. All measures apart from tighter regulations on nursing homes and SD over 70`s will kill more
This means, to have less total deaths we need more cases within the younger population. All measures apart from tighter regulations on nursing homes and SD over 70`s will kill more
It`s ok if you got this wrong at the start. With how the media was reacting it`s understandable. But please stop doubling down with "saving lives" slogans. Or else we will do irreversible damage to our society for nothing....
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