The Scottish Chief Medical Officer’s Covid-19 Note giving the evidence base for the new restrictions makes for remarkable reading.

It indicates new infections in Scotland could reach over 35k per day “without further intervention”. That works out to 9,000 per 100k over 14 days.

The notorious Whitty-Vallance *not a prediction" UK number of 45k per day works out to about 1,000 per 100k over 14 days. The Scottish CMO is suggesting a rate 9 times that by mid-November without the new restrictions.

ECDC report the max 14-day infection rate / 100k for *any* country during the whole pandemic is just over 1,000.

Current rate in Spain (CMO says Scotland is 8 weeks behind) is 300. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide

Note the 35k /day is not some kind of worst case scenario with no restrictions at all, but the mid-point of their modelling with current measures in place.

Have journalists quizzed the First Minister and Scottish CMO about this?

Here is the full paper: https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/advice-and-guidance/2020/10/coronavirus-covid-19-evidence-paper---october-2020/documents/coronavirus-covid-19-evidence-paper-october-2020/coronavirus-covid-19-evidence-paper-october-2020/govscot%3Adocument/Coronavirus%2BCOVID-19%2529%2B-%2Bevidence%2Bpaper%2B-%2B7October%2B2020.pdf