Here’s What Could Happen If China Invaded Taiwan: That scenario, while still remote, is being taken more seriously these days – Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-10-07/here-s-what-could-happen-if-china-invaded-taiwan?srnd=premium-asia

‘Failing to intervene could hurt U.S. prestige on scale similar to the U.K.’s failed bid to regain control of the Suez Canal in 1956, Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, wrote on Sept. 25.’

Daniel Russel: “The strongest driver of increased Chinese assertiveness is the conviction that the Western system, and the U.S. in particular, is in decay.”

‘“We simply have to be prepared for the worst,” said Enoch Wu, a former officer in Taiwan’s special forces who is now with the New Frontier Foundation affiliated with Tsai’s ruling party. “China is no longer ‘biding its time’ and no longer trying to win hearts and minds.”’

‘“Taiwan fighting by itself could make Beijing pay a terrible price, at least several hundreds of thousands in casualties,” [Easton] said. “But that may be a price Xi Jinping is willing to pay. We underestimate the CCP’s capacity for radical decision making at our peril.”’