THREAD: It's been 100 days since the national security law took effect in Hong Kong on June 30, 2020.

Since the legal text had not been published in advance, nobody knew for sure whether it would only target violent behaviour, which was the stated rationale for its introduction.

The next day, we learned that it was intended to target non-violent behaviour also, as the first person arrested under the law was a protester with a Hong Kong independence flag.

10 of the 370 people arrested that day were suspected of violating the NSL. https://twitter.com/hkpoliceforce/status/1278201222457987073

HK has never had a public debate about the merits, or lack thereof, of independence, because, from the time the Hong Kong National Party was founded in March 2016, the government always suggested that merely participating in such debate in support of independence may be unlawful.

In the years that followed, we never did get a clear answer as to whether supporting independence was already unlawful.

The HKNP was outlawed in 2018, but this didn't impose criminal liability on the party founder or members, since they stopped operating. https://twitter.com/aaronMCN/status/1044032900344082432

The one person arrested on July 1 whose case has progressed to court will give the judiciary its first chance to tell us whether or not HK's constitutionally protected freedom of speech is outweighed by the new criminal offence against inciting secession. https://twitter.com/aaronMCN/status/1313256402870296583

This also affects the four students arrested on July 29 for the same offence.

Even if Tony Chung is not prosecuted in the end, his passport remains confiscated, a status quo that can presumably continue until the police close the investigation. https://twitter.com/aaronMCN/status/1288491659571994625

So too can Jimmy Lai's assets remain frozen for the duration of the police investigation, irrespective of whatever prosecution may follow.

Fewer than 30 people have been arrested for alleged NSL violations, but the weight of an arrest is greater than before.

Additionally, even though the NSL was passed by a non-common law jurisdiction, the mechanics of Hong Kong's judiciary remain, meaning that judicial interpretation of the scope of NSL offences and the range of sentences will become known gradually over the coming months and years.

Yet despite all that we will not know for years, the international impact has been felt already. Extradition treaties have been suspended, asylum applications have been granted, co-operation with data requests have been paused and relocation decisions are being made.

100 days.