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1/ Let’s talk Response Dilemmas and Spectrum of Allies, and their utility in reaching political goals.
In this recent piece with @NancyRomm we talked dilemma actions in Portland: https://reason.com/2020/10/02/the-conservative-trans-woman-who-went-undercover-with-antifa-in-portland/">https://reason.com/2020/10/0...
In this recent piece with @NancyRomm we talked dilemma actions in Portland: https://reason.com/2020/10/02/the-conservative-trans-woman-who-went-undercover-with-antifa-in-portland/">https://reason.com/2020/10/0...
2/ A Dilemma Action is simply put, orienting your tactics and objectives with consideration toward your opponent’s capabilities in such a way that they have no practical way to respond with losing the propaganda battle; lose-lose if you will.
3/ in my recent piece for @securefreedom I expanded on the dilemma action in Portland, and discussed how antifa often deliberately chooses to draw PPB into residential areas and provoke deployment of flashbangs and teargas: https://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/2020/08/25/contextual-insurgency-lessons-from-a-week-observing-portland-black-bloc/">https://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/2020/08/2...
4/ this obviously creates an annoying situation for local residents: https://twitter.com/mrolmos/status/1313722882489368576">https://twitter.com/mrolmos/s...
5/ antifa doesn’t get off scott-free, but local residents definitely place most of the blame on the people actually shooting riot munitions, AKA law enforcement: https://twitter.com/mrolmos/status/1313742436686991360?s=21">https://twitter.com/mrolmos/s... https://twitter.com/mrolmos/status/1313742436686991360">https://twitter.com/mrolmos/s...
6/ this other lady probably wasn’t fond of cops to begin with, but this certainly isn’t helping: https://twitter.com/mrolmos/status/1313749762533810176">https://twitter.com/mrolmos/s...
7/ where this gets interesting is over the next few days, antifa-affiliated medic collectives are going to visit these people and others in neighborhood, as a form of community aid/outreach with sanitizer and flyers blaming the police:
8/ Where does Spectrum of Allies come in? Well, this is all a way to move people at least*one notch* in the desired direction, and undermine support for your opponent.
9/ go back and look at the videos of the two ladies: they weren’t huge fans of LE to begin with, but don’t you think they’ve moved more in the direction of sympathizing with antifa? Even passive opposition to neutral is a win!
10/ so ok, now even more people hate cops. Why would this matter right now? Well, who’s in charge of the cops (and thus partly blamed for everything) and what’s he got coming up in November?
11/ Ted Wheeler took 49.3% of the vote in the May primary before the riots, besting “I am Antifa” Sara Iannarone by 25 points. Now he trails her by 11, a 36 point swing: https://www.wweek.com/news/city/2020/10/05/portland-mayor-ted-wheeler-trails-challenger-sarah-iannarone-by-11-points-according-to-dhm-poll/">https://www.wweek.com/news/city...
12/ had the riots not happened, Wheeler would probably be cruising to reelection. Now he’s on track to lose, and since the mayor is also police commissioner it means an antifa-affiliated person is literally going to be in charge of the Portland Police.
13/ antifa has managed to drive alot stuff in Portland over the past few months, but the biggest thing IMO is the way they’ve managed to swing an election so dramatically in favor of their preferred candidate.
14/I titled my CSP piece “contextual insurgency” because frankly not enough people take the time to look at the big picture and the 2nd/3rd order effects of this stuff, when that’s often the most important piece of what happens. /fin
