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I don't usually do these kinds of posts, and I hope that everyone understands my intentions are good here.
But.
In a data deficient landscape like that of #longcovid, one bad data study can create narratives that persist long after new, good data is created. I want to talk 1/
But.
In a data deficient landscape like that of #longcovid, one bad data study can create narratives that persist long after new, good data is created. I want to talk 1/
about one of these.
The Kings College symptom tracker is an app. Because they track symptoms over time, it gets a lot of citations on Long Covid prevalence, and also symptom prevalence.
But there are 2 *huge* issues with it:
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The Kings College symptom tracker is an app. Because they track symptoms over time, it gets a lot of citations on Long Covid prevalence, and also symptom prevalence.
But there are 2 *huge* issues with it:
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1) Because it's an app, it gets exhausting to use, and people stop using it. This is a known and public problem, understood by Tim himself:
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There are so many reasons people stop using it
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More
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2) The other big issue is that the app didn't (possibly still doesn't) collect data on one of the most prevalent symptoms - "brain fog"/cognitive dysfunction - despite requests from patients to do so - despite neurological symptoms generally lasting longer:
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Again, so many requests from patients:
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Tim Spector/team publish those numbers as Long Covid prevalence anyway, & claim that just 1.5% of COVID patients are still symptomatic at 3 months
https://institute.global/policy/long-covid-reviewing-science-and-assessing-risk
There are few official population studies (which is part of the problem)-let's look at what they say:
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https://institute.global/policy/long-covid-reviewing-science-and-assessing-risk
There are few official population studies (which is part of the problem)-let's look at what they say:
9/
CDC's report says that 35% are not recovered at 3 weeks https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6930e1.htm
Report from Wuhan has 11.1% unrecovered at 3 months https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/mco2.13
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Ka6rUg_9OUnmHKc86lFWdOC7MSA0JgJkv0ov5rDB50
None come close to 1.5% at 3 months - it's an order of magnitude smaller than other estimates. 10/
Report from Wuhan has 11.1% unrecovered at 3 months https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/mco2.13
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Ka6rUg_9OUnmHKc86lFWdOC7MSA0JgJkv0ov5rDB50
None come close to 1.5% at 3 months - it's an order of magnitude smaller than other estimates. 10/
And the fact is, you can't put numbers out into the world without explaining the serious biases behind them and then say "take this with a grain of salt." It's been 2 days and these figures have already ended up in the BBC ( https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54296223) 11/
and articles like this one, with King's College team members claiming ""This is absolutely the message we should give: a small proportion have symptoms at 13 weeks, but really pretty much everybody is better by then," Dr Williams said." https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/long-covid-can-really-grim-rarer-think/ 12/
These numbers and subsequent narratives are going to be so hard to beat, and they are going to ultimately *HARM* #longcovid patients. As the saying goes "The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it." 13/
I think Tim Spector is a good person. I'm a huge microbiome nerd and his work there is cool. But this is irresponsible, embarrassing, and needs to be in the public #longcovid awareness, if not corrected completely.
End rant.
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End rant.
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We need an acknowledgment from @KingsCollegeLon @Join_ZOE @timspector on this, and to hear clear feedback on how they are going to change going forward - including how they are going to present their numbers in public. #longcovid care depends on it.
cc @AndyChanMD @MGH_RI
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cc @AndyChanMD @MGH_RI
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The @Join_ZOE app has now paired with a millionaire's underwear company, so on top of blatantly misrepresenting the most important data ( #longcovid prevalence), it's also using patients' #longcovid data for commercial partnerships.
https://twitter.com/Know_HG/status/1317438243818901504
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https://twitter.com/Know_HG/status/1317438243818901504
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What does the ZOE COVID Symptom Tracker app do with the #LongCovid patients who stop using the app?
If the patient had less than *5* symptoms on the last day they used the app, it counts them as *RECOVERED* & considers the disease ended
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If the patient had less than *5* symptoms on the last day they used the app, it counts them as *RECOVERED* & considers the disease ended
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The above is from their preprint directly! https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.19.20214494v1.full.pdf
If you're a #LongCovid patient with less than 5 symptoms, is your illness over?
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If you're a #LongCovid patient with less than 5 symptoms, is your illness over?
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