In 2016, emotion infiltrated analysis. Polling had the race as a 3-4 point race nationally, but emotionally a lot of people could not shake the feeling there was no way America would elect Trump and discounted chance it could happen.

In 2020, emotion is infiltrating analysis the other direction. The polling is clearer and more consistent, with Biden up by 8 in the averages. But emotionally, a lot of people remember the feeling of shock in 2016 and don't want to repeat it.

That isn't to say polls should be accepted as gospel. Be cautiously skeptical, look at averages, watch for trends more than raw numbers, be thoughtful consumers of data.

It's 2020. This is a very, very strange year. Be open to the possibility that things could change or surprise or be absolutely wild. Again: it's 2020!

But also remember: margin of error runs both directions.