Thread - October 7, MN Early Voting and VBM Analysis. @CottoGottfried @TRElections @davidchapman141 @PollWatch2020 Up through yesterday's update. 393,112 votes in MN from VBM/early voting. TargetSmart shows 51%D, 26%R, 23%I. Allocate independents 55/45 to Biden/Trump... (1)

(2) You get Biden with 250K votes and Trump with 142K votes. Banking of +107K votes for Biden so far.

(3) If we assume the same 2.1M votes we had in 2016, and assume we have 65% of the vote cast on Election Day, that's 1.365M votes. Let's say R/D/I is 55/35/10 and split Independents 55R/45D. You'll get Biden 590K and Trump 904K votes on ED. That's a Repub banking of 313K votes

(4) SO, that means Biden has to come up with around 206K votes to overturn Repub vote banking. Around 341K available votes to go before ED. Biden needs to run at 70/20/10 split for the remaining pre-ED vote. Not likely. Trump would win MN by 100K if current trends continue /END

(5) Not likely to happen. If current 51/26 split continues through the rest of early/VBM voting, Biden ends up with 200K votes banked net and Trump still has ~400K banking to drop on Biden on ED.