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There are at least two F-16s at Ganja International Airport in Azerbaijan, our analysis of an Oct. 3 @planetlabs satellite image shows. The fighter jets are likely operated by the Turkish Air Force, alongside a possible CN-235 cargo aircraft. Here’s a short thread why.
We compared the approximate measurements and visual characteristics (canard wings, color, etc.) with a variety of aircraft, including those operated by the Azerbaijani Air Force (MiG-21, MiG-29, Su-25, L-39). The Turkish-operated F-16 is the closest match.
There's also a larger aircraft on the Ganja apron, which we think is likely to be a CASA/IPTN CN-235 transport aircraft, also used by the Turkish Air Force. (It does resemble an Alenia C-27 too, but less likely to be in Azerbaijan due to its operators). https://www.planespotters.net/photo/865513/92-056-turkish-air-force-casa-cn-235-100m
The F-16s may signal increased involvement of a bigger power, Turkey, into the renewed fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkish-backed Syrian mercenaries are already fighting alongside Azerbaijani troops. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/28/world/asia/azerbaijan-armenia-nagorno-karabakh.html
In late July, Turkey deployed several F-16s to Azerbaijan for the joint TurAz Qartalı-2020 military exercises. Back then, at least five Turkish Air Force F-16s were filmed at the same location at Ganja International Airport. https://mod.gov.az/az/news/turaz-qartali-2020-telimlerinde-istirak-edecek-f-16-teyyareleri-azerbaycana-gelib-video-31668.html
Last week, per @AndrewKramerNYT’s reporting, Armenia's prime minister asked President Trump's national security advisor why nothing was being done to stop Turkey as he claimed the longtime U.S. ally used F-16s against Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/04/world/europe/armenia-nagorno-karabakh-trump.html
The Turkish government has denied the Armenian claims that it is sending Syrian mercenaries and F-16 fighter jets to assist Azerbaijani forces in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. https://apnews.com/article/turkey-territorial-disputes-azerbaijan-ankara-armenia-9a95d9690569623adedffe8c16f3588d
While this satellite imagery analysis may be a confirmation of Turkish F-16 presence in Azerbaijan, it’s by no means evidence that one of those fighter jets shot down an Armenian Air Force Su-25 on Sept. 29, as was claimed by their Defense Minister. https://www.facebook.com/shushanstepanyan/posts/3283559811680156
Thanks to @carlottagall for raising the case of the F-16s in Azerbaijan, and @ckoettl, @csbiggers, @johnismay and @obretix for their expert analysis and insight.
The @nytimes Visual Investigations team will continue to monitor the ongoing fighting Nagorno-Karabakh, which has killed at least dozens of people. Feel free to reach out with tips and comments via DM, e-mail (christiaan.triebert@nytimes.com) or messaging apps (see profile).
Turkey kept a number of F-16s in Ganja “as a deterrent against Armenian attacks,” sources tell @ragipsoylu following our reporting, but claim they weren't involved in Karabakh or the Su-25 incident. The jets were moved after Armenian shelling on Oct. 4. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-armenia-azerbaijan-f16-deterrent-against-attacks
