1) For over 2 years I have been saying, and @SHEPMJS has largely agreed, that Trump's black vote share would be up this time.

2) I called this the "Trump 3-step." In 2016, in FL, NC, PA and elsewhere, the black vote for Cankles was DOWN 3% from 2012.

3) This was step 1.
4) That is, blacks weren't ready to vote for Trump, who got over 8%, but wouldn't vote for Cankles.

5) That led me to predict step 2. In 2020, much of that 3% who didn't vote, and 2% or so more, WOULD vote Trump, giving him between 12-15% of the black vote.
6) However, as part of step 2, ANOTHER 5% of blacks would stay home (giving Trump effectively a NET of 14.5%-17.5%, counting each stay at home as .5% of a vote).

Note: in this I did NOT predict these African-Americans would vote REPUBLICAN, just Trump.
7) Step 3: of those who voted Trump in 2020, they would move by 2024 to vote R. Of those who stayed home in 2020, they would move (possibly) to support Trump's successor . . . but possibly not the GOP itself.

It's a process of movement.
8) FDR did NOT get the majority of black voters in 1932. He got few.

He did NOT get the majority of black voters in 1936, but he got a lot more (20%-40% in some cities). So it was a process of movement.
9) So where are we? What does the evidence say now?

("Polls" are not evidence).

10) Our best evidence is coming from Vote By Mail (VBM) statistics in NC. There blacks are returning the VBM ballots at a rate of . . .
10) contd . . . wait for it . . .

5% behind 2016.

In other words, so far, the black electorate is looking exactly like I forecast. We don't know of the VBMs returned how many are for Trump. But even at -5%, Trump is now ahead of 2016 #s by at least 2.5%.
11) Remember, Trump doesn't necessarily "need" black voters the way Demented Perv Biteme does.

DemoKKKrats MUST get over 88% to have a shot.

In 2016, Cankles got 88% and lost.

Right now, Demented Perv Biteme is in the low 80s.
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