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As the First Minister sets out the measures now needed to suppress Coronavirus, @scotgov has today published an evidence paper laying out why action is needed.
You can find it at: http://www.gov.scot/coronavirus-covid-19/
#StickWithIt
You can find it at: http://www.gov.scot/coronavirus-covid-19/
#StickWithIt
The @scotgov evidence paper set out what our modelling it telling us:
“at the current rate of growth (7% increase per day), the number of infections would be at the level of the March peak by the end of October.”
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“at the current rate of growth (7% increase per day), the number of infections would be at the level of the March peak by the end of October.”
#StickWithIt
The evidence paper sets out what has been happening to different age groups: it’s not just hitting the young:
“Cases in people aged over 80 have grown by 60% in the last week and cases for those aged 60-79 have more than doubled with an increase of almost 120%.”
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“Cases in people aged over 80 have grown by 60% in the last week and cases for those aged 60-79 have more than doubled with an increase of almost 120%.”
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If we do nothing, the path we are on is the path already followed by France. They reported 12,565 cases of Covid-19 on Sunday. We are 28 days behind them.
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#StickWithIt
Transmission of the virus is driven by people mixing.
Evidence paper sets out info from Test & Protect on where people had visited etc within 7 days (NB: people can report more than 1 venue / activity).
Family cluster, family gatherings and hospitality dominate.
#StickWithIt
Evidence paper sets out info from Test & Protect on where people had visited etc within 7 days (NB: people can report more than 1 venue / activity).
Family cluster, family gatherings and hospitality dominate.
#StickWithIt
Updating Parliament, the FM began by setting out today’s figures:
“Since yesterday, an additional 1054 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed.
“That represents 13% of the people newly tested, and takes the total number of cases to 34,760.
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“Since yesterday, an additional 1054 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed.
“That represents 13% of the people newly tested, and takes the total number of cases to 34,760.
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“A total of 319 patients are currently in hospital with confirmed Covid-19, which is an increase of 57 since yesterday.
“And 28 people are in intensive care with confirmed or suspected Covid-19, which is an increase of 3 since yesterday.
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“And 28 people are in intensive care with confirmed or suspected Covid-19, which is an increase of 3 since yesterday.
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“And in the past 24 hours, I regret to report that 1 further death has been registered of a patient who had been confirmed as having the virus.
“The total number of deaths in Scotland under that measurement is therefore now 2,533.
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“The total number of deaths in Scotland under that measurement is therefore now 2,533.
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“NRS has also just published its weekly update
“By last Sunday, the total number of registered deaths linked to Covid, under that wider definition, was 4,276. 20 of those deaths were registered last week. That is the highest weekly number of deaths since late June.
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“By last Sunday, the total number of registered deaths linked to Covid, under that wider definition, was 4,276. 20 of those deaths were registered last week. That is the highest weekly number of deaths since late June.
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“These figures illustrate the challenge we again face from Covid. That challenge is also set out - starkly - in an evidence paper published today by the Scottish Government’s senior clinical advisors. It assesses our current situation in relation to the virus.
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#StickWithIt
“I want to emphasise the positive elements of our current position. We are benefiting from sacrifices made over summer. By driving the virus to very low levels, we have helped to ensure that the estimated total number of cases is just 13% of the peak level in March.
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#StickWithIt
“We now have Test & Protect teams across the country, who are doing exceptional work. Test & Protect is now bearing a lot of the strain of controlling the virus.
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#StickWithIt
“We understand more now about how to reduce the risk of transmission - for example, by meeting outdoors rather than indoors if possible, wearing face coverings, cleaning hands thoroughly, and keeping our distance from people in other households.
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#StickWithIt
“So while there are significant restrictions still in place - and they are hard and painful - we are living much more freely now than in the spring and early summer.
“We are determined - if at all possible - that this will continue to be the case.
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“We are determined - if at all possible - that this will continue to be the case.
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“So let me be clear.
“We are not going back into lockdown today.
“We are not closing schools, colleges or universities.
“We are not halting the remobilisation of the NHS for non-Covid care.
“And we are not asking people to stay at home.
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“We are not going back into lockdown today.
“We are not closing schools, colleges or universities.
“We are not halting the remobilisation of the NHS for non-Covid care.
“And we are not asking people to stay at home.
#StickWithIt
“While the measures I announce today will feel like a backward step, they are in the interests of protecting our progress overall.
“It is by taking the tough but necessary action now, that we hope to avoid even tougher action in future.
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“It is by taking the tough but necessary action now, that we hope to avoid even tougher action in future.
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“It’s worth remembering that when I updated Parliament just over two weeks ago, the average number of new cases being reported each day was 285. That was up from 102 three weeks previously.
“Now, we are reporting an average of 788 new cases each day.
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“Now, we are reporting an average of 788 new cases each day.
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“In the 7 days to Monday, the number in hospital increased by almost 80%.
“And the number of people who died with Covid last week was the highest for 14 weeks.
“There was the same number of deaths in the last week alone as in the whole of the previous month.
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“And the number of people who died with Covid last week was the highest for 14 weeks.
“There was the same number of deaths in the last week alone as in the whole of the previous month.
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“The increase in people in hospital with, and sadly dying from, Covid reflect the rise we are now seeing in cases among older age groups.
“In the past week, cases in over 80 years olds increased by 60%, and cases in the 60 to 79 year old group more than doubled.
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“In the past week, cases in over 80 years olds increased by 60%, and cases in the 60 to 79 year old group more than doubled.
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“The highest levels of infection are across the central belt. We are particularly concerned about Greater Glasgow & Clyde, Lanarkshire, Ayrshire & Arran, Lothian and Forth Valley.
“That should not obscure the fact that numbers are rising across Scotland.
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“That should not obscure the fact that numbers are rising across Scotland.
#StickWithIt
