Thread by @lopez_prol, Impact of #COVID19 measures on electricity consumption, published in @iScience

Impact of #COVID19 measures on electricity consumption, published in @iScience_CP @CellPressNews

Cumulative impact March-July ~3-11% reduction

Interactive results & data: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/

Paper:">https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/&qu... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004220308312

Daily">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a... results per country

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">

1/12

Impact of #COVID19 measures on electricity consumption, published in @iScience_CP @CellPressNews Cumulative impact March-July ~3-11% reductionInteractive results & data: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/&qu... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a... results per country https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable=

1/12" title="Impact of #COVID19 measures on electricity consumption, published in @iScience_CP @CellPressNews Cumulative impact March-July ~3-11% reductionInteractive results & data: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/&qu... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a... results per country https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">1/12" class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>

Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in Austria

Left: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)
Right: daily % impact

Cum. impact: -4.6%

Interactive figures:
https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/

Paper:">https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/&qu... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004220308312

2/12">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a...

Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in California

Left: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)
Right: daily % impact

Cum. impact: -4.7%

Interactive figures:
https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/

Paper:">https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/&qu... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004220308312

3/12">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a...

Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in Florida

Left: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)
Right: daily % impact

No net negative impact (+0.9%)

Interactive figures:
https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/

Paper:">https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/&qu... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004220308312

4/12">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a...

Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in France

Left: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)
Right: daily % impact

Cum. impact: -8.8%

Interactive figures:
https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/

Paper:">https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/&qu... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004220308312

5/12">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a...

Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in Germany

Left: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)
Right: daily % impact

Cum. impact: -7.5%

Interactive figures:
https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/

Paper:">https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/&qu... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004220308312

6/12">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a...

Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in Great Britain

Left: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)
Right: daily % impact

Cum. impact: -11.4%

Interactive figures:
https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/

Paper:">https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/&qu... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004220308312

7/12">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a...

Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in Italy

Left: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)
Right: daily % impact

Cum. impact: -11%

Interactive figures:
https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/

Paper:">https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/&qu... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004220308312

8/12">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a...

Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in New York

Left: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)
Right: daily impact

Cum. impact: -3.3%

Interactive figures:
https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/

Paper:">https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/&qu... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004220308312

9/12">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a...

Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in Spain

Left: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)
Right: daily % impact

Cum. impact: -8.6%

Interactive figures:
https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/

Paper:">https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/&qu... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004220308312

10/12">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a...

Relationship consumption decline-stringency of the COVID-19 measures.

Stringency index by @annajessiep, @beakira, @angrist_noam, @thomasnhale, @TobyMPhillips & team at @BlavatnikSchool @UniofOxford

https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker

11/12">https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/...

The method to estimate the baseline is a dynamic harmonic regression.

Seasonality modelled with Fourier terms, ARIMA errors for short-term dynamics, Box-Cox trans. for variance stabilisation, holidays dummy and quadratic temperature.

Test set mean abs. % error 2.7–4.6%

12/12

PS: if this is useful, we will update the results and extend the analysis to other countries

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