Impact of #COVID19 measures on electricity consumption, published in @iScience_CP @CellPressNews

Cumulative impact March-July ~3-11% reduction

Interactive results & data: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ 

Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004220308312

Daily results per country 👇

1/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in Austria

Left: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)
Right: daily % impact

Cum. impact: -4.6%

Interactive figures:
https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ 

Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004220308312

2/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in AustriaLeft: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)Right: daily % impactCum. impact: -4.6%Interactive figures: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S25890042203083122/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in AustriaLeft: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)Right: daily % impactCum. impact: -4.6%Interactive figures: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S25890042203083122/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in California

Left: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)
Right: daily % impact

Cum. impact: -4.7%

Interactive figures:
https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ 

Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004220308312

3/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in CaliforniaLeft: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)Right: daily % impactCum. impact: -4.7%Interactive figures: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S25890042203083123/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in CaliforniaLeft: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)Right: daily % impactCum. impact: -4.7%Interactive figures: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S25890042203083123/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in Florida

Left: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)
Right: daily % impact

No net negative impact (+0.9%)

Interactive figures:
https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ 

Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004220308312

4/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in FloridaLeft: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)Right: daily % impactNo net negative impact (+0.9%)Interactive figures: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S25890042203083124/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in FloridaLeft: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)Right: daily % impactNo net negative impact (+0.9%)Interactive figures: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S25890042203083124/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in France

Left: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)
Right: daily % impact

Cum. impact: -8.8%

Interactive figures:
https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ 

Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004220308312

5/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in FranceLeft: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)Right: daily % impactCum. impact: -8.8%Interactive figures: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S25890042203083125/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in FranceLeft: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)Right: daily % impactCum. impact: -8.8%Interactive figures: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S25890042203083125/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in Germany

Left: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)
Right: daily % impact

Cum. impact: -7.5%

Interactive figures:
https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ 

Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004220308312

6/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in GermanyLeft: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)Right: daily % impactCum. impact: -7.5%Interactive figures: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S25890042203083126/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in GermanyLeft: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)Right: daily % impactCum. impact: -7.5%Interactive figures: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S25890042203083126/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in Great Britain

Left: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)
Right: daily % impact

Cum. impact: -11.4%

Interactive figures:
https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ 

Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004220308312

7/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in Great BritainLeft: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)Right: daily % impactCum. impact: -11.4%Interactive figures: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S25890042203083127/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in Great BritainLeft: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)Right: daily % impactCum. impact: -11.4%Interactive figures: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S25890042203083127/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in Italy

Left: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)
Right: daily % impact

Cum. impact: -11%

Interactive figures:
https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ 

Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004220308312

8/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in ItalyLeft: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)Right: daily % impactCum. impact: -11%Interactive figures: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S25890042203083128/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in ItalyLeft: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)Right: daily % impactCum. impact: -11%Interactive figures: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S25890042203083128/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in New York

Left: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)
Right: daily impact

Cum. impact: -3.3%

Interactive figures:
https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ 

Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004220308312

9/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in New YorkLeft: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)Right: daily impactCum. impact: -3.3%Interactive figures: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S25890042203083129/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in New YorkLeft: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)Right: daily impactCum. impact: -3.3%Interactive figures: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S25890042203083129/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in Spain

Left: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)
Right: daily % impact

Cum. impact: -8.6%

Interactive figures:
https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ 

Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004220308312

10/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in SpainLeft: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)Right: daily % impactCum. impact: -8.6%Interactive figures: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S258900422030831210/12
Daily impact of COVID-19 measures on electricity consumption in SpainLeft: baseline (black) vs actual consumption (color)Right: daily % impactCum. impact: -8.6%Interactive figures: https://jlprol.shinyapps.io/covid/ Paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S258900422030831210/12
Relationship consumption decline-stringency of the COVID-19 measures.

Stringency index by @annajessiep, @beakira, @angrist_noam, @thomasnhale, @TobyMPhillips & team at @BlavatnikSchool @UniofOxford

https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker

11/12
The method to estimate the baseline is a dynamic harmonic regression.

Seasonality modelled with Fourier terms, ARIMA errors for short-term dynamics, Box-Cox trans. for variance stabilisation, holidays dummy and quadratic temperature.

Test set mean abs. % error 2.7–4.6%

12/12
PS: if this is useful, we will update the results and extend the analysis to other countries
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