Here is what happened. when there are rapid pressure drops, winds will spike. The plain caught it, but once the pressure levels off the wind drops back to the relationship that 956 and no visible eye sustains, When a storm weakens, opposite, wind is less.

So NHC upped storm to a 4 which it was for that snapshot. however they kept upping it assuming it was intensifying with no extra recons. When the recon went in and found it much weaker, instead of reacting the way they did with playing it up, no special bulletins

In addition and this is what I see constantly in climate. Data gets adjusted to fit a narrative. The storm was much weaker than what was being reported at. 11 pm It was not a 115 mph at 5 am, the last recon had 67kts. And OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT

I can not understand why this goes on. I dont mean to be a conspiracy nut, BUT WHY NOT REPORT WHAT THE PLANE FINDS. They did when it suddenly intensified. I have seen this for years, but this is as extreme a case

all this being said, should become a real sustained major in the gulf, though weaken off its peak a bit at landfall. But the data speaks for itself. If we are flying recons into it and adjusting for spikes up then why is the opposite ignored unless there is a subjective reason

For 25 years I have been pushing the pressure tendency as a metric to use for peak winds, and for weakening, Its a simple proposition If deepening rapidly turbulent mixing brings wind to surface. If not, storm wind adjust accordingly. If weakening wind is weaker

It is one of the factors in my power and impact scale, Again THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH IDEAS ON WHAT I THINK WILL HAPPEN. I did not think this would weaken coming into Cancun, but I am objective enough to not try to verify something because I think I know whats best