For Trump supporting friends who think I'm overdiscounting his chances of winning next month-- "You said the same thing about Clinton"... well, first of all, I was actually less bullish on Clinton, and second, here's why:

On the left is Clinton/Trump. On the right is Biden/Trump

Trump has never even gotten close to Biden. Moreover, state-level polling--which is what failed four years ago, leaving us unaware of the shift in key states that ultimately gave Trump a narrow edge--is much better. Because pollsters are correcting the errors of 2016.

You can think Trump will win again. But you need a new story, not "It's going to be 2016 all over again". Because it already isn't 2016 all over again.