The key to understanding Nigeria is understanding what the ruling elite fear the most.

That is another civil war.

What they believe will trigger another civil war are sub-national units strong enough to challenge the center.

So "restructuring" is a no for them.

And while "restructuring" might be popular within Nigeria, it is not popular outside Nigeria - especially in Washington, London, especially in the Pentagon/US National Security Establishment, which now drives USA& #39;s Africa policy.

Nigeria& #39;s elite will scare them with "Ethiopia".

So proponents of restructuring within Nigeria must realize that they have few foreign supporters.

Ethiopia& #39;s experience is instructive. British and American diplomats and policy makers have very little interest in sustained development here;

They want "stability" - at any cost.

Within Nigeria, there is a lot less support for "restructuring" than we imagine.

A lot of the noise made right now is simply positioning for 2023. If certain people get what they want, they will keep quiet.

We& #39;ve watched this movie before.

But there is a real economic case for restructuring; the problem is that Nigeria& #39;s politics is motivated by other factors.

And in Nigeria, politics takes precedence over economics - any day, any time.

So we are in a slow motion car crash.