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The key to understanding Nigeria is understanding what the ruling elite fear the most.
That is another civil war.
What they believe will trigger another civil war are sub-national units strong enough to challenge the center.
So "restructuring" is a no for them.
That is another civil war.
What they believe will trigger another civil war are sub-national units strong enough to challenge the center.
So "restructuring" is a no for them.
And while "restructuring" might be popular within Nigeria, it is not popular outside Nigeria - especially in Washington, London, especially in the Pentagon/US National Security Establishment, which now drives USA's Africa policy.
Nigeria's elite will scare them with "Ethiopia".
Nigeria's elite will scare them with "Ethiopia".
So proponents of restructuring within Nigeria must realize that they have few foreign supporters.
Ethiopia's experience is instructive. British and American diplomats and policy makers have very little interest in sustained development here;
They want "stability" - at any cost.
Ethiopia's experience is instructive. British and American diplomats and policy makers have very little interest in sustained development here;
They want "stability" - at any cost.
Within Nigeria, there is a lot less support for "restructuring" than we imagine.
A lot of the noise made right now is simply positioning for 2023. If certain people get what they want, they will keep quiet.
We've watched this movie before.
A lot of the noise made right now is simply positioning for 2023. If certain people get what they want, they will keep quiet.
We've watched this movie before.
But there is a real economic case for restructuring; the problem is that Nigeria's politics is motivated by other factors.
And in Nigeria, politics takes precedence over economics - any day, any time.
So we are in a slow motion car crash.
And in Nigeria, politics takes precedence over economics - any day, any time.
So we are in a slow motion car crash.
