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MUDA, the new youth-led political party in Malaysia, calls for a ceasefire but ended up provoking a war with PH. Why? They claim to be above partisanship but came across as more partisan than before. Why?
A thread on something social scientists called "unintended consequences"
A thread on something social scientists called "unintended consequences"
Unintended consequences simply mean that "actions of people always have effects that are unanticipated or unintended." First popularized by sociologist Robert Merton: https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/UnintendedConsequences.html
MUDA intends to achieve ceasefire, but their action brought about the opposite effect. PH politicians (especially PKR) rejected it outright. Take a look at this wording from MUDA:
"Janganlah ada lagi perebutan kuasa dari mana-mana parti politik dalam tempoh ini"
"Janganlah ada lagi perebutan kuasa dari mana-mana parti politik dalam tempoh ini"
Who do you think that applies to? They basically put the onus on PH/PKR/Anwar to stop. It may not be MUDA's intention to preserve Muhyddin's government but this is exactly the (unintended) consequence of their statement.
MUDA's actions do not occur in a vacuum. Anwar declared he had the numbers, PN ministers kept fumbling over Covid-19 crisis, and yesterday, people were fuming over the PM's nonchalant response e.g. joke about rotan when we have highest # of cases and 1yo baby died).
So in this context, when you ask for a pause, you are giving a lifeline to the status quo and halting the momentum of the other side. We can agree or disagree with Anwar/PH/people who are angry, but know that what you are asking from everyone is not of equal weight.
Even if MUDA's intention is to focus on Covid-19 policy response (and avoid elections), they could have called for a national dialogue first. Talk, negotiate, see if PM deserves to remain. Their statement already established no disruption to status quo without any condition
Also by labeling any change of government as "rampasan kuasa", MUDA has (unintentionally) depicted the status quo as righteous and those who want to change it as committing an immoral, unprincipled, selfish act.
*sorry, perebutan kuasa. It's less strong than rampasan kuasa but the point still applies. "Perebutan" as in wrestling over power. This narrative has a different moral emphasis compared to, say, a narrative that emphasizes removing an incompetent government during a crisis.
How this may affect MUDA in GE15? An unintended consequence of #PauseMalaysia could be that MUDA is alienating PKR (and PH to some extent) and perceived as blocking Anwar. As if seat negotiations are not contentious enough, now MUDA has to nego with PH in a rancorous context.
What is MUDA's electoral path to the legislative assemblies then? (Parlimen and DUN) They must decide soon. If you are going to nego with PH, don't piss them off.
If you going to stand as third party under FPTP, then yes you need to differentiate from PH but how do you do that without coming across as spoiling the votes for PN? How do you not end up like a party version of Undi Rosak? Might want to study PSM and Berjasa's experience in GEs
Ada je kawan2 di MUDA. It's good that they are bringing new people into the political process and participate. But as a political party, they can't operate without political acumen and an understanding of electoral politics. Otherwise, it raises questions of long-term viability.
Kerjasama antara parti pernah dicadangkan oleh @bersih2 , GBM dan ABIM. Contrast the substance and wording of their proposal with MUDA's. And bear in mind that they are NGOs.
http://www.bersih.org/press-statement-from-bersih-2-0-gbm-and-abim-10-june-2020-a-6-point-multi-party-deal-to-reconfigure-politics-and-end-endless-machinations/
https://m.malaysiakini.com/news/544145
http://www.bersih.org/press-statement-from-bersih-2-0-gbm-and-abim-10-june-2020-a-6-point-multi-party-deal-to-reconfigure-politics-and-end-endless-machinations/
https://m.malaysiakini.com/news/544145
