(1/x) Back from a break from Twitter, COVID and the UK. I won't be tweeting as much going forward for various reasons, which I will explain later in the thread. Just going to have a meander over a few developments while I was away & I'll add to the thread as the day goes on...

(2/x) So, there are three things you need to know about current case numbers. Firstly, they are massively, overwhelmingly being driven by student areas, as shows by @RP131: https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1313506406285357057?s=20

(3/x) Secondly, they are still overwhelmingly in the north of England, Scotland and Wales:

(4/x) Thirdly, there is currently an apparent disconnect between the R rate of cases and of hospitalisations, although this might be a lag effect of course:

(5/x) Onto another subject. It's increasingly apparent that there is a disconnect between epidemiologists/virologists on one hand, and those who bear the costs of the policies espoused by these scientists on the other hand. I worry this could get nasty. https://twitter.com/stevebrown2856/status/1313755552518987776?s=20

(6/x) On the subject of hospital admissions, much was made of yesterday's (in fact it was Sunday's) "spike"of 478, but this was clearly driven solely by the North West and my money is on a nosocomial (hospital) outbreak, i.e. cases detected in patients already in hospital:

(7/x) Onto more +ve developments, good (non-peer-reviewed) news from the Regeneron mAb trial, then usurped by the treatment of Trump with the REGN-COV2 drug. Slightly technical article but worth a read (0.60 log10 reduction is 10^-0.60, so about 75% less) https://newsroom.regeneron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/regenerons-regn-cov2-antibody-cocktail-reduced-viral-levels-and

(8/x) Very long but very interesting thread on vaccine developments from @florian_krammer, https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1310372301314101250?s=20 unrolled version here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1310372301314101250.html

(9/x) Updates from Spain, probably 2-4 weeks ahead of the UK (source https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov/situacionActual.htm)

(10/x) Updates from France (sources https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/suivi-indicateurs?location=FRA & https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/maladies-et-traumatismes/maladies-et-infections-respiratoires/infection-a-coronavirus/documents/bulletin-national/covid-19-point-epidemiologique-du-1er-octobre-2020):

(11/x) Couple of interesting threads on the potential of rapid testing. Aside from being, err, rapid, it's also more specific than PCR testing, which is a very good thing: https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1312076250131750914?s=20 https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1313523532207448070

(12/x) The "scientific community" on the Barrington Declaration. Astonishing how many of the contributors don't appear to understand "herd immunity", and accept as a proven truth that there is lack of long term immunity. Zero mention of quality of life! https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-barrington-declaration-an-open-letter-arguing-against-lockdown-policies-and-for-focused-protection/

(13/x) Estimated and very rough R(t) trend from ZOE data: https://covid.joinzoe.com/data 

(14/x) Updated "ratio chart" comparing cumulative cases on 08/04 with cumulative cases now, for every single local authority in England. The intriguing thing is the shape of the maxima: