Read on Twitter
(1/x) Back from a break from Twitter, COVID and the UK. I won& #39;t be tweeting as much going forward for various reasons, which I will explain later in the thread. Just going to have a meander over a few developments while I was away & I& #39;ll add to the thread as the day goes on...
(2/x) So, there are three things you need to know about current case numbers. Firstly, they are massively, overwhelmingly being driven by student areas, as shows by @RP131: https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1313506406285357057?s=20">https://twitter.com/RP131/sta...
(3/x) Secondly, they are still overwhelmingly in the north of England, Scotland and Wales:
(4/x) Thirdly, there is currently an apparent disconnect between the R rate of cases and of hospitalisations, although this might be a lag effect of course:
(5/x) Onto another subject. It& #39;s increasingly apparent that there is a disconnect between epidemiologists/virologists on one hand, and those who bear the costs of the policies espoused by these scientists on the other hand. I worry this could get nasty. https://twitter.com/stevebrown2856/status/1313755552518987776?s=20">https://twitter.com/stevebrow...
(6/x) On the subject of hospital admissions, much was made of yesterday& #39;s (in fact it was Sunday& #39;s) "spike"of 478, but this was clearly driven solely by the North West and my money is on a nosocomial (hospital) outbreak, i.e. cases detected in patients already in hospital:
(7/x) Onto more +ve developments, good (non-peer-reviewed) news from the Regeneron mAb trial, then usurped by the treatment of Trump with the REGN-COV2 drug. Slightly technical article but worth a read (0.60 log10 reduction is 10^-0.60, so about 75% less) https://newsroom.regeneron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/regenerons-regn-cov2-antibody-cocktail-reduced-viral-levels-and">https://newsroom.regeneron.com/news-rele...
(8/x) Very long but very interesting thread on vaccine developments from @florian_krammer, https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1310372301314101250?s=20">https://twitter.com/florian_k... unrolled version here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1310372301314101250.html">https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/13...
(9/x) Updates from Spain, probably 2-4 weeks ahead of the UK (source https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov/situacionActual.htm)">https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesion...
(10/x) Updates from France (sources https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/suivi-indicateurs?location=FRA">https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/suivi-ind... & https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/maladies-et-traumatismes/maladies-et-infections-respiratoires/infection-a-coronavirus/documents/bulletin-national/covid-19-point-epidemiologique-du-1er-octobre-2020):">https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/maladies-...
(11/x) Couple of interesting threads on the potential of rapid testing. Aside from being, err, rapid, it& #39;s also more specific than PCR testing, which is a very good thing: https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1312076250131750914?s=20">https://twitter.com/EricTopol... https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1313523532207448070">https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelmi...
(12/x) The "scientific community" on the Barrington Declaration. Astonishing how many of the contributors don& #39;t appear to understand "herd immunity", and accept as a proven truth that there is lack of long term immunity. Zero mention of quality of life! https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-barrington-declaration-an-open-letter-arguing-against-lockdown-policies-and-for-focused-protection/">https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-re...
(13/x) Estimated and very rough R(t) trend from ZOE data: https://covid.joinzoe.com/data ">https://covid.joinzoe.com/data"...
(14/x) Updated "ratio chart" comparing cumulative cases on 08/04 with cumulative cases now, for every single local authority in England. The intriguing thing is the shape of the maxima:
