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The big story tonight is a $3 million 3-team parlay that could potentially pay $5.5 million (+186)
Before you go out and try to tail Mr. $3m & his bet to pave your way down Easy Street, read this thread and decide for yourself if parlaying futures bets is a wise investment:
Before you go out and try to tail Mr. $3m & his bet to pave your way down Easy Street, read this thread and decide for yourself if parlaying futures bets is a wise investment:
The wager is:
GB to win the NFC North -360
Georgia to win the SEC East -110
Alabama to win the SEC West -670
Let's go market-by-market to figure out the theoretical hold% on these and the true probability.
First, Packers to win the Norris (Chris Berman)...
GB to win the NFC North -360
Georgia to win the SEC East -110
Alabama to win the SEC West -670
Let's go market-by-market to figure out the theoretical hold% on these and the true probability.
First, Packers to win the Norris (Chris Berman)...
GB -360
CHI +425
MIN +1100
DET +2000
This market has an implied 9.42% hold. Not that the vig is evenly distributed, but we'll assume for this exercise it is.
GB -360 = 78.26% implied
Divide that by market overround and you get 70.89% true probability for GB to win the North.
CHI +425
MIN +1100
DET +2000
This market has an implied 9.42% hold. Not that the vig is evenly distributed, but we'll assume for this exercise it is.
GB -360 = 78.26% implied
Divide that by market overround and you get 70.89% true probability for GB to win the North.
GA -110
FL -110
TEN +550
KY +4000
MIZ +10000
SC +10000
VAN +25000
Implied 19.98% hold here.
GA -110 = 52.4% implied
Divide that by market overround and you get 41.92% true probability for GA to win SEC East.
FL -110
TEN +550
KY +4000
MIZ +10000
SC +10000
VAN +25000
Implied 19.98% hold here.
GA -110 = 52.4% implied
Divide that by market overround and you get 41.92% true probability for GA to win SEC East.
BAMA -670
LSU +650
AUB +1200
MS ST +1200
TAM +1200
MISS +2200
AR +5000
Implied 22.92% hold here.
BAMA -670 = 87.01% implied
Divide that by market overround and you get 67.07% true probability for BAMA to win SEC West.
Uh oh, let's check in on that parlay now...
LSU +650
AUB +1200
MS ST +1200
TAM +1200
MISS +2200
AR +5000
Implied 22.92% hold here.
BAMA -670 = 87.01% implied
Divide that by market overround and you get 67.07% true probability for BAMA to win SEC West.
Uh oh, let's check in on that parlay now...
The odds of all 3 of these events happening is:
.7089 * .4192 * .6707 = .1993 = 19.93%
The "fair odds" for a wager like this is +402, not +186.
Mr. $3m is betting into a house edge of 43%
To put this in context...
.7089 * .4192 * .6707 = .1993 = 19.93%
The "fair odds" for a wager like this is +402, not +186.
Mr. $3m is betting into a house edge of 43%
To put this in context...
19.93% of the time Mr. $3m will win $5,579,671.
80.07% of the time Mr. $3m will lose $3,000,000.
His expected value on this wager is: -$1,290,071.57
80.07% of the time Mr. $3m will lose $3,000,000.
His expected value on this wager is: -$1,290,071.57
When you bet parlays, you compound the house edge, much like compounding interest.
Had Mr. $3m bet $1m on each of these separately, his expectation would have been:
GB -$94,200
GA -$199,800
BAMA -$229,200
= -$523,200
But he'd have only a 5.57% chance of losing the full $3m.
Had Mr. $3m bet $1m on each of these separately, his expectation would have been:
GB -$94,200
GA -$199,800
BAMA -$229,200
= -$523,200
But he'd have only a 5.57% chance of losing the full $3m.
Congratulations to DraftKings for finding Mr. $3m. My advice is to find more like him rather than continue to shake him upside down to see what falls out.
If you found this thread interesting, I have more sports betting content on my YouTube channel: http://www.youtube.com/c/CaptainJackAndrews
If you found this thread interesting, I have more sports betting content on my YouTube channel: http://www.youtube.com/c/CaptainJackAndrews
