1/11 The Trump administration just announced an overhaul of the H-1B program.
- Raises entry-level wage req to 45%ile from 17%ile
- Raises highest skill wage req to 95%ile from 67%ile
The $ figure is based on your area, profession and experience.

Let's unpack this.

2/11 This affects prospective H-1B applicants and current holders who need to renew. For current holders, your LCA (Labor Condition Application) has a job code, area, and level.

For me,
Job code - 15-1133 (Software Developer, Systems Software)
BLS Area code - 41860 (SF area)

3/11 You can find the prevailing wages of the 4 levels on the Foreign Labor Certification (FLC) site here. Each level represents a percentile: https://www.flcdatacenter.com/OesQuickResults.aspx?code=15-1132&area=41860&year=21&source=1
- L1 (17%): $96.6k
- L2 (34%): $120.9k
- L3 (50%): $145.2k
- L4 (67%): $169.5k

4/11 Your level depends on your qualifications and role
- L1: BS + 0-1yoe (years of experience)
- L2: BS + 2yoe or MS
- L3: BS + 3yoe
- L4: BS + 4+yoe
However, it's clear from the distribution of granted H-1Bs that companies use a lower PWD level than mandated.

5/11 Raising the bar from 17%ile to 45%ile means instead of making $97k in SF as a Software Engineer, you'll need to make ~$138k (+42%)
This GREATLY affects foreign new grad employability in the USA!

6/11 Here's how many current H-1B holders from tech cos who are < 50%ile and will likely not make the cut after the new wage rules:
- Amazon 86%
- Google 55%
- Facebook (unclear, data skewed by collection method)
- Apple 34%
Source: https://www.epi.org/publication/h-1b-visas-and-prevailing-wage-levels/

7/11 The rule targeted large Indian outsourcing companies, but doesn't affect them all because many have lower PWD, in cheaper geographies.
Most affected big ones:
- Tech Mahindra 98%
- Syntel 97%
- Mphasis 96%
- Wipro 93%
- L&T 92%
- TCS 91%
OTOH, Cognizant 60%, HCL 49%

8/11 Often Indians / Chinese trying to endlessly renew their H-1B while praying for their EB-2/3 line to get shorter, which can take 100+yrs ( https://www.cato.org/blog/150-year-wait-indian-immigrants-advanced-degrees).

A level 4 experienced hire in SF could require $250k+ in base salary (estimate; 95%ile isn't reported).

9/11 With the new rules, you must make ~$115k, up from $79k (+45%) in New York as an entry-level software engineer, 17% less than in SF.

Bankers in NYC (job code 13-2051: Financial Analyst) will have to make ~$122k from $72k (+69%)!!

10/11 This rule could
- seriously impact propensity of international students to study in the US
- propensity of big companies to hire them
- move employment to less dense geographies
- increase salaries for foreign workers
- reduce future green card applicants

11/11 I am not a lawyer, and I don't know how stringently the new rules will be implemented.

Overall though, I don't think it will lead to significantly more Americans being hired, especially in tech - just decrease the hiring of foreign talent.

Link to the official reports: https://twitter.com/doug_rand/status/1313578879840329729