THREAD: It's time for another fact check. We're going to dig a little deeper into President Trump's messaging yesterday, where he essentially started tweeting: "Your 401k will be gone without me."

After Trump said this and the markets shot up, the White House and others tried to say it was because Trump was getting better.

That argument failed...markets were up on news of stimulus getting closer and they have tanked on the news that Trump pulled the deal.

The “he’s the economy guy” argument is growing weaker as small businesses face permanent closure without a relief bill extending more support.

Big businesses knows they will get hurt if consumers have less to spend (which they will without stimulus).

As far as actual policy goes...Trump has talked about a middle class tax cut, but we’ve never seen a plan.

Corporate America certainly benefited from the tax cut, but even some from the CEO set (Jamie Dimon) has said it didn't need to go as low as it did.

And while businesses likes the Trump deregulation message, its impact is wearing thin.

@MoodysAnalytics Mark Zandi says "the economic outlook is strongest under the scenario in which Biden & the Dems sweep Congress & fully adopt their economic agenda."
https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/the-macroeconomic-consequences-trump-vs-biden.pdf

JP Morgan: "The analysts, who have for months preferred growth, defensives and U.S. stocks, say that they're 'warming' to a possible switch of market leadership after the U.S. vote, w/ Biden holding a comfortable lead in national polls over Trump a month before Election Day."

Goldman Sachs: "A Democratic 'blue wave' would 'likely result in substantially easier U.S. fiscal policy, a reduced risk of renewed trade escalation, and a firmer global growth outlook.'"