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I'm going to amend my previous stance on @harrisonjaime's chances: IF things continue the way they are, he's got a real shot.
I'm still bearish on his winning, but I've moved off of "no way in heck" for a couple reasons. One, national groups are making real investments, meaning they're seeing a chance for an upset here.
Between now and e-day, outside groups have booked about $16 MM. Both sides are spending, contrasted with the token spend the DSCC announced a couple weeks ago. This is real.
Another thing I underestimated was the Trump factor. Don't get me wrong...SC is still far from purple presidentially, and anyone telling you this is a swing state is smoking something.
But...there is a real Trump enthusiasm gap developing. Between the debate, the Covid handling, and the stock market tanking today, he's doing down-ticket Republicans no favors. His margin in SC - IF things hold - will be less than what most imagined even a few weeks ago.
Graham's hits on Harrison just haven't landed. And Jaime, as I mentioned before, has run an incredibly good campaign.
28 days is an eternity in politics. The electoral math still doesn't favor Harrison. But if things continue to trend the way they are, I'm seeing a path for him I didn't see before.
