Never thought I'd hear Esper reference Mahan in a speech, but here we are. Perhaps it was a reading assignment from Robert O'Brien.

But on to a wee thread about this speech and the implications. https://twitter.com/defense_news/status/1313601800453459972

1) He's publicly stated he's committed to moving funding from across DoD to pay for this buildup. That's important, if only for just this coming budget, which if polling is accurate will be changing in January.

2) Esper is leaving, but I don't think this is unimportant.

I'm not sure a hypothetical Biden administration would push in a very different direction: Recall "made in America," which will cause some problems for shipbuilders but I digress.

The US doesn't want to lose maritime dominance. Maybe a progressive presidency, but not Biden.

3) A second Trump term will probably fund this, though they've not proven good at making tough choices with other services. That would have to change if the topline stays flat with inflation.

But from my conversations in Trumpland, they really believe this is core.

If the US is going to end forever wars but maintain it's influence, the thinking goes, it needs a big Navy.

4) Back to the Biden alternative: Michele Flournoy, who even if she somehow doesn't become SECDEF in a potential Biden Administration talks about big bets. She talks about sinking the Chinese Navy in 72 hours. That's a joint problem for sure, but what I DON'T think that means ...

Is something other than fewer carriers, more unmanned and smaller manned combatants and more firepower distributed over more platforms. In other words, something broadly in alignment with what Esper laid out. Form the record, she avoided the question when @AaronMehta asked her.

I think her thinking is a pretty good indicator of where national security democrats are, and investments in technology to make a lighter, more agile and connected force is where they seem to be.

Anyway, that's my sense of what this means: 500 is a big number, I don't think we ever hit. I think the general principles laid out by these studies is a good glimpse of where, as of today, DoD thinks naval warfare is going and its unlikely to change regardless of the election.

End Transmission.