Some thoughts on the seemingly inevitable "local lockdown" in Nottingham while we wait for more news. A thread:

Firstly, it's unlikely to be a full-blown lockdown like that of earlier in the year. So maybe it's better to just say "tougher restrictions"...

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Assuming it's the same as in large parts of Northern England, as health officials have suggested it will be, places like pubs/restaurants could remain open. There'd just be restrictions on different households mixing, with an exception for those in a "support bubble"

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One key thing we still don't know (and yes we have asked) is whether restrictions will extend to other parts of the County. Here, the funny way Greater Nottm is organised comes into play. Scholars of the ongoing row over Local Government Reorganisation will know this...

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Nottingham City, which currently has the really high infection rate of 440 per 100,000 population, is considered by many to be "underbounded" i.e. the boundary of the city proper is much smaller than the wider conurbation...

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So if, for example, you live in Beeston, you might tell people you meet on holiday that you're "from Nottingham", but *technically* you live in Broxtowe. Likewise for Arnold (Gedling), West Bridgford (Rushcliffe) etc. etc.

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Now, as per this tweet from earlier this evening, rates in the areas mentioned above are high (indeed they're similar to Leicester when it went into "local lockdown"), but nothing like as high as in Nottingham City at present...

6/ https://twitter.com/HughCasswell/status/1313502542597361664?s=20

So should they all be subject to the same restrictions, regardless of differing rates? That's why the boundary issue matters because you'd think it would be illogical if households couldn't mix on the City side of the boundary but could on the other...

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If there were different restrictions and you lived on the City side of Trent Bridge, for example, you could quite easily nip over into West Bridgford for a pint with someone from another household. You can imagine the concerns of health officials if that were possible...

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On the other hand, it would be tempting for the sake of tidiness to bring in the same restrictions for all of Nottinghamshire, but you'd be pretty miffed if you lived in Mansfield where the rate is currently less than a seventh of that in Nottingham...

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So, to sum up, it looks nailed on that tighter restrictions are on the way. But where exactly will the line be drawn on the map?

We’ll try to bring you more news as soon as we can.

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