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A thread on Historical Presidential Election Data
First, the data
Polling Lead, Election Popular Vote, Result
20: Biden 9,?,?
16: Clinton 4,2, L
12: Obama 3,4, W
08: Obama 11,8, W
04: Bush 0,2, W
00: Bush 2,0, W
96: Clinton 11,9, W
92: Clinton 12,6, W
88: Bush Sr 12,8, W
First, the data
Polling Lead, Election Popular Vote, Result
20: Biden 9,?,?
16: Clinton 4,2, L
12: Obama 3,4, W
08: Obama 11,8, W
04: Bush 0,2, W
00: Bush 2,0, W
96: Clinton 11,9, W
92: Clinton 12,6, W
88: Bush Sr 12,8, W
84: Reagan 18,18, W
80: Reagan 3,10, W
76: Ford 1,-2, L
72: Nixon 24,23, W
68: Nixon 1,1, W
64: Johnson 26,22, W
60: Kennedy 2,0, W
56: Eisenhower 19,15, W
52: Eisenhower 2,11, W
48: Dewey 5,-5, L
44: Roosevelt 3,7, W
40: Roosevelt, 4,10, W
36: Roosevelt, 12,24, W
End of data
80: Reagan 3,10, W
76: Ford 1,-2, L
72: Nixon 24,23, W
68: Nixon 1,1, W
64: Johnson 26,22, W
60: Kennedy 2,0, W
56: Eisenhower 19,15, W
52: Eisenhower 2,11, W
48: Dewey 5,-5, L
44: Roosevelt 3,7, W
40: Roosevelt, 4,10, W
36: Roosevelt, 12,24, W
End of data
Out of 21 elections only 3 times the polling underdog won.
2016: Hilary Clinton was ahead by 4%, won the popular vote by 2% and lost
1976: Gerald Ford was ahead by 1%, lost the popular vote by 2% and lost
1948: Thomas Dewey was ahead by 5%, lost the popular vote by 5% and lost
2016: Hilary Clinton was ahead by 4%, won the popular vote by 2% and lost
1976: Gerald Ford was ahead by 1%, lost the popular vote by 2% and lost
1948: Thomas Dewey was ahead by 5%, lost the popular vote by 5% and lost
So the largest polling lead EVER overcome on election night was 5 points. Currently Biden is ahead by 9 points. Unless Trump can shift the current climate significantly by election day, this would be the greatest upset of any presidential candidate since polling began.
Of these 3 losses, the polls were actually fairly accurate in 2016/1976, its just these elections were extremely close elections.
The 48 election was the most disastrous case of polling in US history. They were off by 10 points. Polling was still new and mistakes were made.
The 48 election was the most disastrous case of polling in US history. They were off by 10 points. Polling was still new and mistakes were made.
If we look at modern era polling (lets say the last 40 years of elections), the average difference between the polls going into election night and election results is ~3% or so. Quite a margin of error that can change an expected result (like we saw in 2016).
However if we look at historical data, a 9 point lead has been insurmountable on election night. In fact candidates averaging 9 points or more are undefeated on election night. Even if you think you cant trust polls, this would be a historically record breaking victory for trump.
