1/10 IS TESTING WORTH THE PRICE?
The Univ. of Illinois ( @Illinois_alma) has been hailed by many as a model of how we should handle testing.

Students are tested twice weekly, and anyone who enters a building must show a negative test.

Are their outcomes worth the cost?

2/10 I compiled data for 7 universities in Illinois along with data from their counties.

Of note is that UIUC's testing level is as much as 60x larger than the other institutions.

3/10 The theory promoted by many is that increased testing finds more cases and helps prevent the spread of CV19 in a community.

Thus more testing should result in less hospitalizations, less ICU issues, and less death in a community.

4/10 So does testing decrease deaths and hospitalizations in the colleges themselves?

“No”. Since there is a very small number of hospitalizations and no deaths from CV19 across many colleges, massive testing has no impact on student CV19 outcomes. https://twitter.com/andrewbostom/status/1313162488955973634

5/10 In fact, the case curves for the colleges all follow the same pattern regardless of their testing levels.

So even though UIUC tests at a per student level 60x greater than SIU, their curves are very similar.

6/10 Next, do testing levels impact hospitalization or death rates for the broader community?

Again, “no”. Comparing tests/student with hospitalizations/100k and deaths/100k in the broader county shows an R^2 value of no significance.

7/10 How about ICU headcount? Has testing helped stop hospitals from becoming overwhelmed?

Another “no”. There is no discernable connection between testing levels and local ICU headcount.

In fact, the college with the least amount of testing (SIU) has the lowest headcount.

8/10 And now for the cost

The test used by UIUC is one of the cheapest ($20/test). They have already spent $8 billion on testing.

If this level (9 tests/student) were replicated for the entire U.S., it would have already cost $3.9 billion

Imagine the cost after a full year

9/10 Beyond the financial cost, more testing, creates more false positives which leads to more students being unnecessarily quarantined.

The social/psychological issues caused by forced isolation are real and damaging. They should be avoided at all costs https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.04.20167932v4

10/10 In summary, increasing campus testing has no impact on keeping students or the community safe from CV19.

Increased testing does, however, cost millions; take up precious time/resources; contributes to a culture of fear; and quarantines healthy students.

#RationalGround