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I& #39;ve been thinking a lot about Trump& #39;s potential October surprise and the possible impact... and I struggle to see how another Russian hack/email dump and Barr/DOJ release...has anywhere close to the same impact as in 16. Thread. 1/
For one, the press get it now. In 2016 the press missed the huge shocking story staring them in the face: Russia was intervening in our election. And instead saw the email dump as "leaks." The Sunday shows on October 9th 2016 were shocking. 2/ https://www.amazon.com/Cyberwar-Russian-Hackers-Trolls-President/dp/0190915811">https://www.amazon.com/Cyberwar-...
This gave Clinton a month of damaging stories, a kin to a daily shelling, with some having a real impact. Trump for example ginned up a whole campaign saying Clinton was anti-Catholic based off a warped reading of a Podesta email exchange. 3/ https://www.vox.com/2018/4/25/17214724/trump-russia-wikileaks-catholic-clinton">https://www.vox.com/2018/4/25...
When the DNI leaked bogus Russia disinfo last week... Politico didn& #39;t run the story they hoped (HRC ordered some false flag) and went with the actual story: DNI pushes Russian disinfo to help Trump.
We& #39;ve built up a degree of resiliency. 4/ https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/29/john-ratcliffe-hillary-clinton-russia-423022">https://www.politico.com/news/2020...
We& #39;ve built up a degree of resiliency. 4/ https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/29/john-ratcliffe-hillary-clinton-russia-423022">https://www.politico.com/news/2020...
Additionally, there was an element of luck in 2016. Comey& #39;s letter about Hillary& #39;s emails amplified Podesta& #39;s emails. The public didn& #39;t treat these as separate email issues. It was all just "emails" and made it seem like something corrupt. A month of WL emails amplified Comey. 5/
Furthermore, this time the press don& #39;t have it out for Biden in the maniacal way they did for HRC, where they always just assumed the worst. Hence, BS Trump/Russian efforts on Hunter Biden-Burisma and other weird allegations just aren& #39;t landing on Biden, who is a known entity. 6/
The press also thought Clinton was going to be president and Trump was just a weird anomaly and wasn& #39;t worth paying attention to. Hence there was hyper-scrutiny of Clinton but little media effort to expose Trump or look into his business. The race in the end was about Clinton. 7/
That& #39;s obviously not the case now. It& #39;s about Trump. And the October surprises that are landing are about Trump; his taxes and former officials coming out with shocking details about him and his administration.
There are likely more revelations coming about Trump. 8/
There are likely more revelations coming about Trump. 8/
Nevertheless, we can totally expect some release of stolen hacked material disparaging of Biden. Perhaps a deep fake. A forged document. Etc. But I think no matter what it won& #39;t be as clean a hit as it was in 2016. 9/
Don& #39;t get me wrong. The press won& #39;t be able to restrain themselves if it appears juicy. But unlike in 16 it will also be reported on as foreign interference to help Trump - that component will be a key part of the story. 10/
The press will also be barraged as being "useful idiots" if they credulously make a huge deal of stolen content.
In short the work folks have done highlighting Russian interference has raised awareness and made it harder for these types of efforts to succeed. 11/
In short the work folks have done highlighting Russian interference has raised awareness and made it harder for these types of efforts to succeed. 11/
Lastly, while Trump will be desperate to recreate the impact of the Comey letter, I just can& #39;t see anything that Barr/Durham does over the next month having nearly the impact. 12/
Comey had a huge impact because he had credibility. But Trump and Barr light their credibility on fire every day. If Barr/Durham announce some indictment vs. an Obama era official or release some finding no one will believe this isn& #39;t political. The story will be... 13/
OMG the AG of the US is using the DOJ to pursue political opponents to help the President win the election.
The story will be Barr& #39;s actions not the substance of whatever he claims.
You& #39;ll get the headlines politico just had with the DNI pushing Russian disinfo. 14/
The story will be Barr& #39;s actions not the substance of whatever he claims.
You& #39;ll get the headlines politico just had with the DNI pushing Russian disinfo. 14/
The greater fear is what the Russians might try to do on election day or after to undermine the elections. Since w/ Trump there is little to deter them.
But in the meantime though, while a Russian release may be likely, it& #39;s tough to see how it c/d turn things around for Trump.
But in the meantime though, while a Russian release may be likely, it& #39;s tough to see how it c/d turn things around for Trump.
