As is often the case, I found myself off down the rabbit hole of gambling again and took a keen interest in an article about near misses.

A thread

A study done with 50 people showed that some found the idea of nearly winning to be either ‘encouraging’ or ‘frustrating. Nothing to be gleaned there but a further study of 20 slot players produced an overwhelming conclusion that a near miss would encourage further play

That’s because the near miss has the same cognitive effect as a win. That good old dopamine hit again

Consider the case of a lottery with 855304 as a winning number and three clients who hold tickets 361204, 965304 and 865305. The first of these would be least upset and the last would be devastating.

The degree of frustration is thought to depend upon the ease with which the more desirable alternative outcome can be imagined and the experience of regret arises as a special form of frustration. In most cases, to help ease that frustration, they have another go

A slot machine reinforces the player when certain arrangements of three symbols appear in the window. By paying off very generously with the jackpot for three bars, the device eventually makes two bars plus any other figure strongly reinforcing.

Almost hitting the jackpot increases the probability that the gambler will keep playing the machine

Early slot machines would have only 10 of the 20 symbols visible on the pay line with the winning line either above or below and clearly visible to the player. The dummy signals would act as bait because they often formed winning combinations that are in sight

Often machines would have the third reel rigged so that 2 bars might be followed by a cherry, with the bar tantalisingly above or below the line.

It didn’t seem that difficult to engineer outcomes to benefit the owner of the machines – and that was years before the internet came along. A report of the Royal Commission of Gambling from 1978 talks of ‘heart-stoppers’.

We have all scratched off 2 of a kind to find a dud behind the third door, it’s almost as if they were designed that way to keep players playing…

No doubt the industry would tell us that most slot players ‘gamble responsibly’ and that by having these close shaves will enhance the experience. They would of course be talking out of their arse

Like those who are supposed to govern it