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1) "Freeper" byecomey's NC early vote analysis.
Byecomey at http://www.freerepublic.com , who keeps an election blog here https://joeisdone.github.io/Age.html has been doing a daily analysis of NC early/vote by mail (VBM)
2) Here is a snapshot of the last few days:
Byecomey at http://www.freerepublic.com , who keeps an election blog here https://joeisdone.github.io/Age.html has been doing a daily analysis of NC early/vote by mail (VBM)
2) Here is a snapshot of the last few days:
3) To match 2016 turnout in NC (where DemoKKKrats lost to Trump by 2.7 points) they need to get in early voting/VBM
936,296
To adjust for increased population & registration changes they need only to get
761,992
But at this rate they would get
717,971
936,296
To adjust for increased population & registration changes they need only to get
761,992
But at this rate they would get
717,971
4) This is a shortfall of 218,325.
Ds are SEVERELY UNDERPERFORMING IN NC.
Rs are OUTPERFORMING by 22,469
Is are WELL OUTPERFORMING by 100,558
5) Wait, it gets better: even if you allocate ALL the Is' outperforming to Ds (say all indies vote Biteme) they are short 150,000!
Ds are SEVERELY UNDERPERFORMING IN NC.
Rs are OUTPERFORMING by 22,469
Is are WELL OUTPERFORMING by 100,558
5) Wait, it gets better: even if you allocate ALL the Is' outperforming to Ds (say all indies vote Biteme) they are short 150,000!
6) Byecomey concludes "if I think like a Democrat, I would be pivoting my focus to voter suppression, and attempting to discourage Election Day turnout."
Rs must make sure ALL polling stations are open & staffed on election day.
Rs must make sure ALL polling stations are open & staffed on election day.
7) The DemoKKKrats' returned ballots demographically are significantly OLDER. This seems to be in keeping with my hypothesis that closed colleges will mean fewer students voting, because they do NOT tend to vote from home.
8) Overall, very good news for Rs in NC and pretty bad news for Ds. They will need a miracle to overcome a 241,000 deficit by the end of early voting. Over 34% of D requests are back in!
NOTE: Trump won NC in 2016 by . . .173,000.
NOTE: Trump won NC in 2016 by . . .173,000.
