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Yesterday, @katecallen and I obtained unpublished provincial data that shows *very* worrying test positivity rates in Toronto. Writing this story was a wake-up call for me; you might feel the same way after reading it. A thread: https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/10/05/more-than-10-per-cent-of-covid-19-tests-are-coming-back-positive-in-some-pockets-of-toronto.html
TPH's website shows that the city's test-positivity rate is 2.5%. But that's based on old data from Sept. 20. The figures we obtained are more current and show that two-thirds of the city now has rates higher than 3%. Some pockets have rates higher than 10% (!!)
Yesterday, @KashPrime tweeted leaked data showing alarmingly high positivity rates in neighbourhoods with higher proportions of racialized and lower-income households. The same areas that bore the brunt of cases during the 1st wave: northwest corner, St. James Town, etc
Says @drandrewb: "The fact that resources and supports weren’t actively mobilized to make sure this couldn’t happen again in the same place speaks to the longstanding discrimination and structural racism."
To place these positivity rates in context: @TOPublicHealth has set a goal of <3% for the city's positivity rate. New York just moved to impose lockdown restrictions in 9 hotspots that have seen positivity rates of 3% or more for seven consecutive days https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/04/nyregion/nyc-covid-shutdown-zip-codes.html
TPH medical officer Dr. Eileen de Villa has been pushing for Toronto-specific restrictions, including shutting down gyms, restaurants & bars for four weeks. As @jpags reported, the city's now at odds with Queen's Park over who should make these orders https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/10/05/premier-doug-ford-wont-close-bars-and-restaurants-in-toronto-without-more-data-despite-soaring-case-counts-and-plea-from-citys-top-doctor.html
Here's a great explainer, also from @jpags, about the legal logjam between the city and the province as they fight it out https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/10/01/torontos-top-doctor-has-asked-the-province-to-impose-stricter-rules-to-fight-covid-19-why-doesnt-the-city-itself-act.html
A key lesson of this pandemic has been that timing is critical. A Nature study looked at lockdown interventions in China & found that if the country had waited just one week to enact them, it could have seen 3x more cases by Feb. 29 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2293-x
If they'd waited 3 weeks, cases could have risen *18* fold. I spoke with one of the study authors, @nruktanonchai:
'The one thing I think that we’ve learned about this pandemic is it’s not actually that hard to control — as long as you’re decisive.'
'The one thing I think that we’ve learned about this pandemic is it’s not actually that hard to control — as long as you’re decisive.'
Other jurisdictions have already gone through their second waves. What can we learn from them? @ASPphysician and others have pointed to Melbourne, Australia as jurisdiction that acted aggressively and early when they saw cases skyrocketing for a second time
On July 7, Melbourne announced a second lockdown. Since then, restaurants and bars have closed, classrooms have gone online, people have been banned from leaving their homes for non-essential reasons, and a night-time curfew was even imposed. It's been very, very painful.
Today, many restrictions remain in place but Melbourne's second wave is coming under control. It's taken three months to get to this point.
When Melbourne first announced its second lockdown, the city had 97 active cases. Toronto had 97 *new* cases — a month ago.
When Melbourne first announced its second lockdown, the city had 97 active cases. Toronto had 97 *new* cases — a month ago.
What do the next few weeks and months bring? It depends on the decisions we make today, experts say. @ASPphysician is not feeling hopeful: "I have zero doubt that we are going to be experiencing something substantially worse than Melbourne has had to experience."
